Description: This article will further discuss decentralized and centralized model development frameworks and provide tips and rationale for transitioning toward centralized model development.

Description: With more than 24 years of experience in the reinsurance market, Bruno Freire is the CEO and one of the co-founders of Austral Re, along with Vinci Partners, a private equity firm. Austral Re is a Brazilian- based multiline reinsurer which that writes business across Latin America. It has grown organically throughout the last 13 years, and had its credit rating upgraded to A- in 2023 by AM Best (it also has AAAbr from S&P). Before joining Austral, Bruno had been a reinsurance broker at Aon Re for more than 10 years, having witnessed the opening of the reinsurance market in Brazil. As we will be seen in his interview the following, he believes in a data driven analytic approach, client focused but with an underwriting mindset, as well as a strong support from actuaries and technology as key instruments to run a reinsurance company successfully.

Description: An introductory article describing how Bayesian statistics has evolved over the past 20 years and why it offers the actuarial discipline powerful tools to better understand and manage risk. Compared with traditional (frequentist) and black-box (machine learning) approaches, Bayesian analysis provides explainable models focused on distributions of estimates instad of simply point estimates.

Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: CMS provides ACOs with monthly claims data for members, including their medical visits and ACO program eligibility. This data can be divided into Membership and Claims tables through the ETL process. However, when calculating PMPY at specific levels of detail using these tables, issues arise due to unrelated dimensions, leading to inaccurate and understated results. This article presents a solution to this problem by utilizing Tableau's data blending capabilities.

Description: Bell is comparing his roles from that of an actuary in the USA to that of an actuary working in Cameroon, for a pan-African insurance company.

Description: There will be inflection points in the value of an instrument when interest rates change. These inflection points could materially impact the approximation of value change using ALM metrics. In this part of the seven-part series, I will highlight: • How to identify the inflection points; • the range of rate changes where ALM metrics may be relied upon i.e., the “validity” range, outside of which recalculation of the ALM metrics is required and the potential that one needs to rebalance the portfolio; • a technique to improve on the approximation of value change beyond the validity range; and • a technique to convert non-linear change on the yield curve to be used with duration and convexity.

Description: This article will highlight the issue that the sum of key-rate metrics does not add to metrics derived by parallel shift to the entire curve, even at very low shift size. Additionally, in the article I will outline how to define a single rate change to be applied to a key rate (or the entire curve) since the rate changes are generally not level or parallel.

Description: In the spring of 2019, Dr. Cai started to serve as the Actuarial Science Program coordinator at Salisbury University, a medium-sized public teaching school in Maryland. At that time, the program was small, with only two faculty members who focused on both statistics and actuarial science, with approximately 10 students. During the next five years, the program did make some achievements in curriculum development, student exam preparation, job placement, and recognition, but Dr. Cai continued to have a dream to make the program unique. Dr. Cai believed that the skill sets students learned, even from a small program, could enable them to compete with anyone on a global basis. In spring 2024, Dr. Cai advised a group of exceptional actuarial students to participate in the 2024 Society of Actuaries (SOA) Student Research Case Study Challenge (SRCSC), and the team won third place – —behind two teams from the University of New South Wales, Australia. This article is the story of the journey.

Description: Article describes accomplishments as Chair during the year. Four accomplishments are mentioned: i) Actuarial Research Conference ii) Early Career Award, iii) Establishment of Outstanding Educator Award, iv) Push to create surveys from the section containing a reservoir of ideas that can be used for webinars, podcasts, etc.