Description: The personal auto insurance industry is constantly changing. There are small and steady changes over time (e.g., inflation affecting the cost of repairs or general progress in the safety of vehicles) and sharp spikes (e.g., disasters and legislation). That change has never been more apparent with the Covid-19 pandemic, civil unrest, and driverless cars all presently having a significant impact on personal auto insurance.

Description: Reserving and ratemaking calculations are vital to how insurance companies perform financially. Current-day practices for predicting future loss ratio or pure premiums for reserving and ratemaking rates are not based on low prediction errors—mean squared error (MSE) criterion. This report provides mathematically optimal weights that lead to minimum MSE prediction errors, and the formulas are validated using retro-testing with real-world datasets. In this report, two main theorems are discussed, each addressing prediction of future loss ratio or pure premium and improving upon current practices for how rates and reserves are calculated.

Description: This report series is being informed, in part, by online conversations of the listserv the SOA maintains for its Committee on Post-Retirement Needs and Risks, and the Aging and Retirement Strategic Research Program. The listserv is comprised of professionals involved in retirement security issues from a wide variety of disciplines and perspectives. This report summarizes thoughts and questions raised during the conversation focused on how COVID-19 impacts families and their role in retirement and economic security across generations.

Description: The emergence of target benefit pension plans in Canada has focused attention on risk sharing in employment-based retirement income schemes.

Description: Over the past month, the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic has raised questions on how this outbreak will impact life insurance industry claims. This report pulls emerging U.S. COVID-19 hospitalization data and deaths obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) COVIDView, a Weekly Surveillance Summary of U.S. COVID-19 activity, and compares it to data from past U.S. influenza seasons obtained from the CDC’s Flu Activity and Surveillance webpage.

Description: COVID has washed over healthcare like a tsunami. According to Medicare actuaries, trends have been turned upside down in 2021, but will reverse back in 2023 as medical costs rebound. It is more prudent to base projections on long run trends for a period after the storm, extrapolating from 2026 forward, leaving the intervening turbulence (years 2022 -2025) mostly unspecified.

Description: The Society of Actuaries’ Aging & Retirement Strategic Research Program is pleased to make available the fourth edition of the retirement risk chart. This chart provides information for consumers and other audiences on retirement risks and strategies for managing these risks.

Description: This report covers historical mortality from 1999-2018 by race as categorized by population data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) WONDER database. Mortality for all deaths and six specific causes of death are considered over this period. Additionally, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced mortality as a whole and this report shows the breakdown of COVID-19 deaths by race.

Description: The Society of Actuaries’ (SOA’s) educational track on General Insurance (property and casualty) was recently recognized by both Hong Kong and Singapore regulators.

Description: News release announcing the On-Campus Testing Program