Description: This research report summarizes methodologies used for yield curve extrapolation to value liability cash flows that extend beyond the maximum observavble portion of the yield curve.

Description: There will be inflection points in the value of an instrument when interest rates change. These inflection points could materially impact the approximation of value change using ALM metrics. In this part of the seven-part series, I will highlight: • How to identify the inflection points; • the range of rate changes where ALM metrics may be relied upon i.e., the “validity” range, outside of which recalculation of the ALM metrics is required and the potential that one needs to rebalance the portfolio; • a technique to improve on the approximation of value change beyond the validity range; and • a technique to convert non-linear change on the yield curve to be used with duration and convexity.

Description: Risk Management and Actuaries—SOA Risk Management Task Force Update

Description: A central problem for regulators and risk managers concerns the risk assessment of an aggregate portfolio defined as the sum of d individual dependent risks Xi. This problem is mainly a numerical issue once the joint distribution of (X1,X2, . . . ,Xd) is fully specified. Unfortunately, while the marginal distributions of the risks Xi are often known, their interaction (dependence) is usually either unknown or only partially known, implying that any computed risk measure of the portfolio is subject to model uncertainty. Previous academic research has focused on the maximum and minimum possible values of a given risk measure of the portfolio, in the case in which only the marginal distributions are known. This approach leads to wide bounds, as all information on the dependence is ignored. In this paper, we integrate in a natural way available information on the multivariate dependence and provide easy-to-compute bounds for the risk measure at hand. We observe that incorporating the information of a well-fitted multivariate model may, or may not, lead to much tighter bounds, a feature that also depends on the risk measure used. We illustrate this point by showing that the Value-at-Risk at a very high confidence level (as used in Basel II) is typically prone to very high model risk, even if one knows the multivariate distribution almost completely. Our results make it possible to determine which risk measures can benefit from adding dependence information (i.e., leading to narrower bounds when used to assess portfolio risk), and, hence, to identify those models for which it would be meaningful to develop accurate multivariate models.

Description: The author makes 10 predictions of how risk management will change over the next decade.

Description: ALM actuaries are critical to insurance companies and pension funds—monitoring ALM positioning, measuring risk exposures, and informing the investment decision making process. However, there are opportunities for actuaries to further increase their impact by expanding their scope and embedding actuarial expertise throughout the investment lifecycle. This session will cover new and enhanced ALM techniques to improve ALM risk and return outcomes, including better integration of credit and market risk measurement, and enhanced liability-driven investing strategies.

Description: Equity-Based Insurance Guarantee Webcast Series

Description: The Federal funds rate increased by 4.25% in 2022 with further increases in 2023, which have already resulted in a liquidity crisis for a few banks. As the rapid increase of the interest rates pushed the new money rates above the yields of many life insurers’ investment portfolios, insurance companies are facing a dilemma between compressed margins from peer pressure and the concern with liquidity shortfalls and realized capital losses should mass surrenders happen. This paper discussed main emerging risks under rising interest rate environment, and several ways to mitigate these risks.

Description: To address non-parallel movement in the interest rates the concept of key-rate duration was introduced in mid-'80s by Tom Ho. I will define certain key rate metrics, their variation used in the industry, how to calculate them, and an existing industry issue with how they are used. Additionally, I propose a novel technique to calculate key rates to mitigate the problem faced in the industry

Description: To address non-parallel movement in the interest rates the concept of key-rate duration was introduced in mid-'80s by Tom Ho. I will define certain key rate metrics, their variation used in the industry, how to calculate them, and an existing industry issue with how they are used. Additionally, I propose a novel technique to calculate key rates to mitigate the problem faced in the industry