Description: In *From Distress to Distinction*, Chris Droussiotis explores a novel approach to valuing distressed companies using option pricing theory, drawing parallels to the financial challenges faced by startups. With over 30 years in banking and startup advising, he emphasizes that both distressed firms and early-stage ventures endure periods of negative cash flow but retain potential for recovery. He combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model to evaluate distressed firms’ recovery prospects and debt sustainability. A case study on Spirit Airlines illustrates this approach: though its current equity value is negative, projected future cash flows suggest significant potential recovery. Droussiotis concludes that strategic valuation, using trend, peer, and expected analysis, can reveal hidden value in distressed companies, guiding effective investment and restructuring decisions.

Description: The theme of this presentation relates to solving portfolio selection problems using linear and fractional programming. Two key contributions: 1. Generalization of the CVaR linear optimization framework. 2. Equivalences among four formulations of Coherent Distortion Risk Mearures optimization problems. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol. 1.

Description: This article addresses the concern that while risk assessment models are supposed to help identify and reduce risk, they can be a source of risk themselves. A new report released by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries in August 2008 helps address that potential problem by providing useful guidance to actuaries who are charged with designing, implementing and using advanced models.

Description: In this webcast, two points of view are presented - Seven Life Defining Decisions, which presents an individual perspective on lifetime financial choices, and Life-Cycle Fund Design, which discusses the design of a comprehensive life-cycle fund model that includes human capital risk, longevity risk, bequest motive, parameter uncertainty, and different types of annuities and provides a model for financial risk.

Description: Modeling Approaches and Challenges focuses on approaches to real world simulation and the challenges and considerations in real world simulation. Topics include: A frequency domain approach to build realistic multi-horizon scenarios. (Ortec approach) Cascade models structure linking models for major asset classes and economic variables. (Moody’s approach) Overview of models, calibrations & approaches within the context of different use cases. Deterministic & stochastic approaches. Importance of model re-calibration flexibility. We will also discuss specific insights into considerations and challenges in real world simulation, which include topics like: Setting capital market assumptions and/or calibration targets. Assumptions about correlation and causality. Calibrating the model to capital markets assumptions. Validating the model against capital market assumptions. Role of history, market data and stylized facts. Importance of back testing. Calibrating the model to multiple investment horizons. Inclusion of alterative asset classes such as private equity, infrastructure, and direct real estate. Associated issues of limited data, illiquidity and greater uncertainty about calibration targets.

Description: Emerging Applications of ESG Methods offers ground-up insights on cutting edge applications of economic scenario generation. The course will focus on the incorporation of climate change risk in scenario modeling and investment applications of ESGs. The following topics will be covered: Approaches to climate risk modeling. Climate risk is very different than classical financial economic risk. Radical uncertainty is amenable to scenario analysis and lack of data. Building special deterministic scenarios that go beyond NGFS requirements as well as bespoke scenarios. Holistic Approach to Climate Risk Modeling. Overview of different Climate Risk Modeling Applications. Use of ESG scenarios for Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA). Liquidity risk management.

Description: Hear AM Best rating analysts discuss the rating process and the best capital adequacy ratio (BCAR), a quantitative foundation for AM Best’s assessment of carriers’ financial strength. The benchmarking of BCAR scores for various company types (national MCOs, BCBS plans, smaller regional plans) will be discussed. Look at how changes in investment and underwriting environment impacted the results over the past several years. Further, AM Best’s view of the quality of capital and various factors impacting the overall assessment of the balance sheet strength will be discussed.

Description: This presentation discussed the Copula Methodology, which is the most popular methodology in multivariate modeling in finance and insurance. The definition, advantages, limitations, and uses of the Copula Methodology were presented. Some other multivariate models were discussed as well. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol. 1.

Description: This session will focus on what is new and coming at the Appointed Actuary (e.g., Actuarial Guideline ((AG)) 53, equity testing, etc.). We will provide highlights from the updated AAT Practice Note. A particular focus will be paid to asset classes that have received regulatory attention recently (e.g., commercial mortgage loans, collateralized loan obligations ((CLOs)), etc.).

Description: Our panel will discuss techniques for efficiently modeling assets and liabilities while minimizing the computational expense of full-blown nested Monte Carlo simulation. These techniques include: • Neural networks • Data clustering and selection of representative contracts • Scenario reduction • Proxy functions for estimating the value of complex assets and exotic derivatives embedded in liabilities. Attendees will learn about the theory behind these techniques and implementation practicalities, and we will present case studies illustrating their benefits.