Description: The Society of Actuaries Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Investment Section and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries are pleased to release a new and improved version of the 2005 Society of Actuaries (SOA) Delphi study of four economic variables. Performed by Theodore J. Gordon, the research acquaints actuaries with the application of futures methods that could supplement traditional actuarial forecasting practices.

Description: Decentralized finance, or DeFi, is an emerging financial system powered by blockchain technology. This research report aims to introduce actuaries to DeFi and help them develop a solid understanding of DeFi. It will begin with addressing “what is DeFi?” by providing an introduction on blockchains and DeFi. It will then discuss in further detail the key characteristics, applications, opportunities, and risks of DeFi. After providing the foundation, this report will discuss the potential adoption of DeFi and its interaction with the current financial system (sometime referred to as traditional finance for contrast with DeFi), and the implications for practicing and aspiring actuaries. In addition, a glossary of terms used in DeFi and a brief history of the development of DeFi have been included in the appendix.

Description: This presentation provided an analysis of investment guarantees in equity-linked products. There was an overview of the data and models in use. In addition an actuarial approach to left-tail analysis was presented as well as a dynamic hedging approach. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol. 1.

Description: Appendix 2 from the research report entitled 'Exploration of Reputational Risk from the Perspective of a Variety of Stakeholders.'

Description: This presentation discussed the Copula Methodology, which is the most popular methodology in multivariate modeling in finance and insurance. The definition, advantages, limitations, and uses of the Copula Methodology were presented. Some other multivariate models were discussed as well. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol. 1.

Description: This report explores how artificial intelligence can be applied to investment and retirement planning, highlighting real-world applications, risks, and recommendations.

Description: This paper investigates the implications of using the Basel II motivated Advanced Measurement Approaches as a method to assess operational risk capital charges for banks and insurance companies with regard to U.S. regulations. The AMA developed in the paper uses actuarial loss models complemented by the extreme value theory to determine the empirical probability distribution function of the aggregated capital charges in the context of various classes of copulas. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2006.

Description: The Casualty Actuarial Society, the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, the Society of Actuaries Joint Risk Management, Reinsurance and Financial Reporting Sections are pleased to make available key findings from the 2022 Emerging Risks Survey, the sixteenth in the series. Conducted by Max J. Rudolph of Rudolph Financial Consulting LLC, the survey incorporated a set of Emerging Risks defined by the World Economic Forum as the basis for several of the questions. The survey also included questions related to current risk management topics.

Description: Constant maturity credit default swaps [CMCDS] are useful as hedging tools. In intensity model approach, the default time is defined as the first arrival time of the Poisson process. From the market quotes of CDS forward rates and bonds, we are able to numerically compute the default probabilities. Approximating CMCDS price depends largely on CDS forward rates’ volatilities and their correlations. This paper implements the price algorithm based on Brigo’s work [2006]. Starting with current market data such as CDS forward rates and nondefaultable bond prices, the paper describes steps involved to obtain the price CMCDS. The paper demonstrates the impact of convexity on the CMCDS price structure.

Description: We derive formulas for calculating the premiums that should be charged on policies in a discounted cash flow model with tax reserves and required assets that are determined by regulation. We also determine the unique division of required assets into “reserves” and “capital” that allows the product profitability to be correctly evaluated. That is, the profit after capital charges is zero if the product achieves the return assumed in pricing. We illustrate the concepts using whole life insurance and guaranteed minimum death benefit examples.