Description: This report evaluates the long-term mortality consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic from a cohort-based perspective using historical mortality data.

Description: This report provides a validated, structured dataset of demographic and socioeconomic variables to support mortality heterogeneity research across geographies and population groups.

Description: This paper develops a formal framework to model the behavior of individual and small group health insurance policies in a competitive market. In this framework, anti-selective lapse is not assumed, but arises as a result of rational consumers seeking the best value in a competitive market where the premium rates are restricted by law. The authors obtain a model that addresses a number of fundamental questions which have not been fully answered previously, including the effect of price-induced anti-selective lapse on the mix of insureds in a block and the optimal renewal price to maximize the aggregate profit of a block.

Description: The COVID-19 pandemic initially caused some health care services to shift away from in-person transactions to a digital form, including telehealth, e-mails, remote patient monitoring and other forms of communication. If sustained, numerous effects and counter-effects both in the cost and quality of care as well as long-term outcomes for patient health may emerge.

Description: This study of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality builds on a previous report in which we identified a large and growing gradient in life expectancy between 1982 and 2019 across U.S. counties classified into 10 socioeconomically homogeneous categories. In this report, we seek to identify the particular causes of death contributing to the growing disadvantage in mortality between populations in the least and most affluent deciles as previously defined.

Description: On September 14, 2022, The Wall Street Journal hosted its ‘Future of Health’ event, which was a virtual event featuring three sessions on some emerging cutting-edge topics that could impact the future healthcare environment as well as health care actuaries. This report summarizes the event.

Description: This report explores AI bias in insurance and health data, highlighting the ethical role of actuaries and offering cross-disciplinary guidance for fairer decision-making systems.

Description: This paper is about an Interacting Particle System [IPS] approach to modeling treatment costs associated with a multiple stage pandemic. The model population receives differing treatments with possibly differing costs depending on the stage of exposure/infection. The total cost of treatment is a time varying utility function of the ensemble population for which this approach uses particle system methods to simulate the cost of maintaining survival of the population. The paper gives a brief background on particle systems with specific focus on 'the contact process', followed by expanding the contact process to represent more realistic state transitions.

Description: Healthcare costs have been rising faster than general inflation for many years. Early models that predicted this past pattern projected healthcare expenditure growth that continued to outpace total expenditure growth leading to the fallacious position that the whole of the US economy would ultimately be consumed by healthcare. The Society of Actuaries' Pension Section and Health Section Research teams commissioned Professor Thomas E. Getzen of Temple University to construct a resource model for the projection of long term healthcare cost trends that includes capacity constraints to ensure the long-term projection is rational. The motivation for creation of the model was driven by its potential usage as a resource for the estimation of reportable liabilities for retiree healthcare benefits as specified under FAS 106 and GASB 45 accounting statements. This is a zip file containing the following: 1. A background paper on the creation of the health trend model, 2. The model, programmed in Microsoft Excel [xls format], that projects per-person expenditures and growth rates through 2099 using baseline assumptions, but also permits the flexibility for user–inputted alternative assumptions, and 3. Technical documentation providing transparency and support for the ultimate results.

Description: This report is presented in the form of a Tableau dashboard and is the sixth public release from this report series and contains the results of an excess mortality analysis for the fourth quarter of 2021. Data from 30 companies representing approximately 69% of the industry’s face amount inforce were included in the analyses in this report. A total of 3.2 million death claims from individual life policies from 2015 through December 31, 2021 make up the basis of the analyses. The report also compares the experience under COVID-19 of the insured population versus the general population.