Description: The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) project for the transition to a new real-world economic scenario generator (ESG) prescribed for principle-based reserve and capital calculations selected a vendor in the fall of 2020. The American Academy of Actuaries and other interested parties have been assisting the NAIC in this transition. Over the past four years, extensive analysis, model validation, and comparison work has been done. There have been many updates on the project but few opportunities to obtain an in-depth understanding of the new features of the new ESG and its impact on reserves and capital. Practitioners are very interested in the questions: - How different are the scenarios from the Academy/Society of Actuaries ESG and the new NAIC ESG? - How different are the models and techniques used to create the scenarios in both generators? - Is there a significant difference in capital and reserve requirements for model office tests between the two ESGs? - Are there concerns with the new NAIC ESG? The session addresses each of these questions in detail. At the conclusion of the session attendees will appreciate the key differences between the model structure and scenario performance of the two ESGs and will understand the differences in capital and reserve requirements for model office tests across the two ESGs. Attendees will also learn how the initial yield curve fitting differs between the models, about fund mapping considerations, and the interpretability of parameters in the new NAIC model.

Description: Book review of Extreme Risk Management: Revolutionary Approaches to Evaluating and Measuring Risk by author Christina Ray.

Description: The document is a research paper titled "Risk Analysis of the Causes of Food Deserts" authored by Lillian Wang, Audrey Hong, Jaden Chen, and Aaroh Tak for the Modeling the Future Challenge 2023-2024. It analyzes food desert risk factors, forecasts food desert rates, and proposes risk mitigation strategies based on statistical modeling and data analysis.

Description: This paper evaluates the current practice of operational risk management in the insurance sector. Operational risk is nothing new in insurance, but, because of regulatory requirements, companies have initiated computation of risk capital for their operational losses. The current effort to manage operational risk is not a naturally evolving phenomenon, and operational risk, in the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s Basel II definition, is unlikely to be a significant cause of insurers’ failure. In addition, the current Basel II definition of operational risk is not suitable for the insurance sector. Consequently, the invention of models and tools based on the definition is incomplete and illusionary. My findings are based on the analysis of dozens of interviews with insurance industry professionals. I demonstrate the way operational risk is quantified in practice, show that the result obtained from this computation is of littl e use in managerial decision making and propose a set of policy recommendations illustrating the characteristics of operational risk in insurance. This study can be used as a platform for launching dialogues to initiate fresh thinking about operational risk in insurance beyond the current artificial and narrow boundaries.

Description: The Casualty Actuarial Society, the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, the Society of Actuaries Joint Risk Management, Reinsurance and Financial Reporting Sections are pleased to make available key findings from the 2022 Emerging Risks Survey, the sixteenth in the series. Conducted by Max J. Rudolph of Rudolph Financial Consulting LLC, the survey incorporated a set of Emerging Risks defined by the World Economic Forum as the basis for several of the questions. The survey also included questions related to current risk management topics.

Description: The surge in interest rates over the past few years presents opportunities for life insurers to enhance their Asset and Liability Management (ALM) positions through asset rebalancing to narrow the duration gap and secure higher risk-adjusted yields. This webcast introduces a robust, efficient and readily-executable, liability-driven strategic asset allocation (SAA) framework and implementation considerations. At the conclusion of the webcast, attendees will learn about the key objectives and practical considerations for a successful SAA.

Description: Gather with members and non-members in the China actuarial community to discuss recent topics and related issues in areas such as macroeconomic sharing, pension, investment, product strategy, and more.

Description: We will discuss how climate change risk represents radical uncertainty and the challenges this presents in integrating climate risk analysis and traditional investment risk analysis. The session will then explain and illustrate why deterministic, narrative-based, scenarios form a suitable basis for analyzing the potential impact of climate change on investment portfolios and strategies. At the conclusion of this session, attendees will understand deterministic and stochastic approaches to integrating climate risk with economic scenarios and how these can be applied in investment management. Attendees will also understand the challenges in creating a realistic integration of climate and economic scenarios.

Description: Understanding Asian Capital Regimes

Description: In this article, the interviewers will discuss the pros and cons of centralized modeling function vs a business unit based modeling function. Their experience will help us in identifying factors in contributing to a successful centralized model function and understand how to set expectation with modeling stakeholders.