Description: Healthcare risk adjustment methodologies have become increasingly complex, largely due to the belief that complexity enhances accuracy. However, a disconnect exists between how healthcare risk is assessed and how payments are adjusted. This article explores the stark difference between measuring the accuracy of a risk assessment model at a member level, and that of a risk adjustment mechanism at the health plan level. I show that a highly simplified approach that does not use diagnosis codes can have similar accuracy on risk adjusted payments to models that do. These findings suggest that accuracy is not a barrier to developing simpler risk adjustment methodologies, which can improve payment accuracy and reduce the financial incentive for coding diagnoses.

Description: Health insurance company assets and liabilities have evolved since the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) was signed into law in March 2010. The ACA fundamentally rearranged how commercial health insurance is funded by integrating federal premium subsidies and pass-throughs together with a marketplace interwoven with transfer payments among stakeholders. The impacts of these programs can be seen in specific accounting items on the balance sheets of health insurance companies over the past 10 years. Their emergence follows three primary trends: (1) balance sheet items tend to be larger and take longer to settle, (2) there are more interactions among items, and (3) the final settlement amounts are more uncertain.

Description: The US healthcare system is among the world's most advanced, but is the highest-cost by far. At Swiss Re we studied the highest-cost US Medicare beneficiaries during 2016. The Medicare government program primarily covers seniors and individuals with disabilities. Total Medicare spending during 2016 was nearly USD 700,000,000,000. In our study, the 1% of beneficiaries with costs of USD 125,000 or higher generated 15% of total claim costs. Better understanding of these beneficiaries and their treatment could lead to improved quality and efficiency of care. Analysis of their claims can aid projections of the expected level and variance of costs. We calculated claim costs and rates, and identified higher-cost segments (including inpatient claims, individuals with disabilities or end-stage renal disease, Pacific states including California, and men). We look forward to expanding the analysis in future updates.

Description: This article discusses the causes of the 1918 influenza pandemic, the reasons it occurred and the likelihood that it could happen again. In addition, the author discussed ways, in general, to model and manage risks that occur infrequently, yet have a significant impact.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that describes two predictive models for hospital readmission rates using patient level data with specific patient information.

Description: NAIC Health Update. Issue No. 44.

Description: This corner serves to update the membership of some of the section’s milestones for this year, set the trajectory for 2009, and thank the many dedicated individuals and teams who made it happen. Issue No. 59

Description: This article gives an overview of the worksite marketing/volutary products market and addresses the pros and cons of this marketing approach.

Description: There is a big wave of changes coming to the pharmacy market. The extent is not yet fully known, but there are trends we can follow that help us predict. Biosimilar uptake is key to driving savings, but it can take a while to ramp up. Biosimilars bring competition, and this coming wave will bring unprecedented Biosimilar competition.

Description: Article reviews the data a year into the unwinding of continuous coverage provisions in Medicaid, the impact on enrollment counts, how capitation rates have been adjusted, and compares those results to what has been modeled with the SOA Mediciad Unwinding model.