Description: This report gives an update on the Getzen Model of Long-Run Medical Cost Trends for 2025-2035+, providing insights on key considerations, input parameters, and projections. It includes observations on long-term medical cost trends, budgetary resistance, and regulatory impacts on healthcare expenditures.

Description: This report is presented in the form of a Tableau dashboard and is the sixth public release from this report series and contains the results of an excess mortality analysis for the fourth quarter of 2021. Data from 30 companies representing approximately 69% of the industry’s face amount inforce were included in the analyses in this report. A total of 3.2 million death claims from individual life policies from 2015 through December 31, 2021 make up the basis of the analyses. The report also compares the experience under COVID-19 of the insured population versus the general population.

Description: We will discuss how climate change risk represents radical uncertainty and the challenges this presents in integrating climate risk analysis and traditional investment risk analysis. The session will then explain and illustrate why deterministic, narrative-based, scenarios form a suitable basis for analyzing the potential impact of climate change on investment portfolios and strategies. At the conclusion of this session, attendees will understand deterministic and stochastic approaches to integrating climate risk with economic scenarios and how these can be applied in investment management. Attendees will also understand the challenges in creating a realistic integration of climate and economic scenarios.

Description: Discusses how 'insignificant' changes in assumptions can have very significant affects.

Description: Cautions against putting too much faith in financial models - such as the IASB's proposal to accrue future expected profits on the day a policy is issued.

Description: This paper studies a smoothing spline Poisson regression model for the analysis of mortality data. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 2006, Vol. 1.

Description: In the context of reinsurance, this paper addresses finding the quota share retention level and the retention limit, with a diffusion process being added to the claim process, that maximizes the adjustment coefficient in the Sparre Anderson model. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2006.

Description: This is the abstract of a paper that presents an iterative procedure for computing the lower approximation of the Snell envelope - a value process of the American option. The method produces an increasing sequence of approximations of the Snell envelope from below, which coincide with the Snell envelope in discrete time after finite steps. Advantages of this method compared with other well-known traditional approaches are discussed first. Then, elaborate algorithm details associated with theoretical proofs are discussed. An example of constructing the lower approximation is available with numerical results, which are demonstrated in figures. Some characteristics of the implementation in the computational environment and an improvement are mentioned at the end.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that considers a general risk model in which both the claim and income gain arrivals follow Poisson processes.