Description: This is a concluding and encompassing part of our research on the project entitled \Weighted Premium Calculation Principles and Risk Capital Allocations, which has been supported by the Actuarial Education and Research Fund AERF and the Society of Actuaries Committee on Knowledge Extension Research CKER. We explore the concept of weighted distributions and their role in various phenomena occurring in insurance and finance. In particular, we relate weighted distributions to actuarial and economic premium calculation principles, and also to the capital asset pricing model CAPM. Imitating the latter, we propose a weighted insurance pricing model WIPM. Although general in formulation, we show that the WIPM can successfully be evaluated in a variety of situations, which we illustrate with a number of examples.

Description: This paper investigates the interaction between a credit portfolio and another risk type, which can be thought of as market risk. We analytically calculate their inter-risk correlation and show how inter-risk correlation bounds can be derived.

Description: As a life reinsurer, understanding mortality risk is mission critical. Superior models of mortality risk lead to more competitive pricing in profitable market segments and more efficient use of capital. Surprisingly, modern statistical tools such as predictive modeling have not previously been used to model mortality data to gain this edge. In this paper, we present the use of a predictive modeling technique called projection pursuit regression PPR to model mortality data. We first describe the process of creating a PPR model using inter-company mortality data collected by the Individual Life Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries, and present the resulting model. We then discuss the process of using this model as a starting point for creating a more detailed PPR model of internal company mortality data.

Description: Actuaries have traditionally recognized the links between risk and value, and in recent years have begun to incorporate aspects of modern financial economic theory into their traditional valuation and risk management approaches. As a result, there has been an increasing trend in the incorporation of explicit market-based risk adjustments into valuations, whether for internal or external purposes. The use of market-based metrics to reflect risk in valuations is becoming increasingly widespread—in fact, major external standard setters, including FASB, IASB, CFO Forum and the various parties setting standards for Solvency II, have prescribed varying levels of use of market-based metrics to measure risk in valuations. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Scenario analysis and stress tests based on consideration of shock events and their possible repercussions can provide useful information to management and regulators on a company’s resiliency through a chain of events, as well as support the consideration of a firm’s operations as an integral part of a wider financial system. We discuss how scenario analysis and stress testing can be used to define a company’s risk appetite, which is at the core of a well-embedded ERM framework. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Discussion of the US Social security system from the perspective of Asset Liability management theory. From Asset-Liability Integration, M-FI02-1.

Description: This paper takes the position that a retirement plan should not be evaluated differently than other financial arrangements, and, therefore, its value should be measured through a utility function. The paper then suggests a method of incorporating utility theory into the retirement plan design model. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: This paper introduces a re-rating formula which calculates proposed rates directly by means of fully developed and trended loss costs and current class differentials. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: This paper examines the fundamental principles underlying the theory of rate change. The proposed approach shows improved accuracy as compared to current methods, with particular significance for a non-static book of business.

Description: Property and casualty insurers face risks in many key areas, such as operations, natural catastrophes and underwriting. Among the underwriting risks is the potential financial impact of adverse loss reserves development.This paper illustrates a model of loss reserve risk that will incorporate how risk evolves over time at annual time horizons.