Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: "Living to 100 in the time of COVID-19: A Study of Late –Life Mortality Trajectories, Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., Academic Research Centers, NORC at the University of Chicago Swedish Mortality Does Not Decelerate in Recent Cohorts, or Does it? – Roland Rau, Ph. D., Professor, University of Rostock & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; Marcus Ebeling, Ph.D., Karin Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm Sweden; Kai Kaufhold, Aktuar DAV, Ad Res Advanced Reinsurance Services GmbH, Cologne, Germany; Annika Ziegler, Lukas Stake, Hochschule Koblenz & Ad Res, Germany"

Description: The Society of Actuaries’ (SOA’s) educational track on General Insurance (property and casualty) was recently recognized by both Hong Kong and Singapore regulators.

Description: The Actuary recently asked Bob Smyth of Gant Travel Management some questions regarding international travel. Smyth says if you plan well and are up to date on new regulations and passport requirements, traveling abroad is smooth sailing.

Description: This report models and forecasts future mortality improvements in China, by geographical regions, as well as by causes of death. Deaths and population exposures data provided by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention was used for the period 2004–2019.

Description: Are the choices we make the same in certain versus uncertain situations? What pushes our choices in one direction or another? In this session, join our discussion on the elements that make up consumer choice architecture, how they interact with risk appetite and how to intervene in risk choices, using the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) as a case study. Together, we will explore behavioral considerations in risk appetite from the individual consumer and public policy perspectives. The latter will include environmental, social and governance considerations, including the challenges of climate change in a divided political landscape with limited resources. We will cite and use program data to support behavioral assessments. Appetite as a function of both risk preference and risk perception will serve as a foundational premise for the presentation.

Description: In this session, presenters will share the impacts of transition to IFRS 17 on equity and various KPIs across insurance companies (Life & P&C), as well as share some observations of what the IFRS 17 landscape looks like across different global regions. The session will conclude with lessons learned and expectations for emerging practices under IFRS 17 globally.

Description: Worried about the latest wildfires? Can't keep up with the latest geopolitical landscape? Wondering how close AI is to taking over? Join us as we discuss the results of the 18th edition of the Emerging Risk Survey. This is an annual survey which is jointly sponsored by the Casualty Actuarial Society and the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.

Description: The document is a quarterly global warming report by the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, providing statistical summaries of global warming trends using ERA5 data. The report compares temperature data from different time periods and highlights warming trends across air and sea-surface temperatures.

Description: Chairperson’s Corner