Description: Proposes setting premiums such that inflation and age could change the premium over time, rather than prefunding. The value may be to change the approach to pricing LTC and improve the risk.

Description: In this project the researchers explored the new opportunities provided by the ongoing revolution in information technology for studies of exceptional human longevity. Methodologies and interpretation of the results were presented.

Description: Long Term Care Think Tank: Exploring the possibilities for helping the American public manage the financial burden of long term care. This report shares the output of a 1.5 day structured brainstorming session involving some of the LTC industry’s preeminent thought leaders. Ideas presented here are intended to help transform the delivery, accessibility, and financing of long term care.

Description: This research report addresses two purposes: [1] to incorporate phase transitions into a copula framework, and [2] to calculate the probability of defaulting in the context of a portfolio of correlated mortgages when a contagion effect exists. Understanding and measuring the effects that contagion has on the probability of defaulting, for both single assets and portfolios of assets, are crucial to collateralized debt obligation [CDO] markets.

Description: This document shows you how to set up modeling platforms and start to work with them. Used in conjunction with Complexity Science - An Introduction and Invitiation for Actuaries.

Description: Traditional pension mathematics assumes that mortality rates are fixed at a valuation date. If mortality rates reduce after a valuation date, the liabilities of a defined benefit plans 'DB plans' increase, leading to deficits. Such deficits are somewhat unpredictable, because the evolution of mortality rates is a random process. This problem, which is often called longevity risk, makes the maintenance of DB plans difficult. The International Accounting Standards Board 'IASB' has plans to tackle the arduous problem of how to disclose longevity risk on financial statements. The IASB was established in 2001 to create universal accounting standards, called International Accounting Reporting Standards 'IFRSs'. A primary objective of this paper is to propose a number of methods that can help actuaries and plan sponsors quantify and disclose longevity risk.

Description: This predictive modeling paper, “Household Life Insurance Demand – A Multivariate Two-Part Model is one of a collection of essays that examine how existing or new methods or models can be applied to the life insurance industry.

Description: This predictive modeling for life insurers paper, “Predictive Model Learning of Stochastic Simulations” by John Hegstrom is one of a collection of essays that examine how existing or new methods or models can be applied to the life insurance industry.

Description: The "Think Tank on Steroids" group at the DI and LTC Insurers’ Forum brainstormed about what the United States should do in order to deal with the impending Long-Term Care problem in the United States. The group’s ideal plan for dealing with Long Term Care can be thought of as a three-legged stool. The legs are private savings and assets (including tax-advantaged LTC savings accounts), Long-Term Care Insurance (including smaller, more affordable products), and support from the family. The Medicaid system ought to be reformed so that it is only available to people who have exhausted all other options. The ongoing Think Tank will continue this conversation and publish a white paper detailing the Think Tank’s solution to the problem.

Description: A research paper that outlines a seamless method of deriving assumptions for modern reserving and solvency capital requirements from a company’s own data.