Candidate Questionnaire
Ian Duncan, FSA 2002, FIA 1982, FCIA 1984, MAAA 1992, FCA 2015
President, Santa Barbara Actuaries Inc.
Adjunct Professor, Dept. of Statistics & Applied Probability, University of California, Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara CA
Brief description of current work:
President of a healthcare actuarial consulting company, focused on Value-based Contracting. Also an Adjunct Professor, UCSB, educating and mentoring students.
Primary Area of Practice:
Health
Academic
Other Areas of Practice
Education & Research
Professional Background
Provide a brief description of your professional background and the type of work you have performed and explain how these experiences have uniquely prepared you as an Elected Board Member and qualify you in carrying out the strategic direction of the SOA.
This year is the 50th anniversary of my first actuarial internship. I qualified in England, and have practiced in England, Canada, South Africa, Latin America and the US. I became a health actuary 40 years ago and worked for Aetna and PwC (management consulting). After successfully starting and selling two companies I followed a long-held ambition to become an academic and for the last 12 years have been an adjunct professor at UCSB in California. I was a pioneer in the profession developing healthcare predictive analytics and health outcomes evaluations (and writing 2 textbooks used for Fellowship exams). I also completed my (much-delayed) PhD in actuarial statistics in 2020. I have been an entrepreneur, founding or co-founding 5 companies and encouraging entrepreneurship among actuaries (I was one of the founders of the Entrepreneurship and Innovation section). I know the SOA and its structure very well, having been a volunteer for over 20 years, serving on the board (2012-5), chairing numerous committees and councils, as well as receiving 2 presidential awards. As both a professor and an employer I have had the opportunity to observe the highs and lows of actuarial education.
After a period of rapid growth in the 1990s-2000s the actuarial profession is no longer one of the top choices for smart students. While students are attracted by the opportunities of data science, they do not know what actuarial work entails because we do not do a good job of explaining the work or the value we add to clients. Students are turned-off by professional exams. A consequence is that as an employer we cannot find enough well-qualified candidates for our positions. While the SOA’s strategic plan may reverse some of this problem it does not go far enough
Volunteer, Governance and Personal Experience
Describe how your volunteer, governance and personal experiences would strengthen your contributions to the SOA Board, the organization, and strategic plan execution. Please list your relevant volunteer experience. Please include the name of the organization, your role, and approximate dates.
I have been a volunteer for the SOA since the late 1990s, initially in the Marketing and Distribution section (council member); I was one of the founders of (what is now) the Entrepreneurship & Innovation Section (Newsletter editor; chair). I chaired the Education and Research Section, organized the 2014 ARC at UCSB and remain a friend of the Council. I have presented and recruited speakers for countless SOA meetings. While on the SOA Board (2012-5) I was a member of the Cultivate Opportunities committee where I was a principal motivator for predictive analytics for actuaries (and the PA exam for students). The PA exam remains a focus; I helped design the exam and have been a grader since inception. While on the Board I also chaired the Marketing Executive Committee and was responsible for overcoming much inertia and indecision to gain approval for, and successfully launch the new SOA logo. I was a member of the CAE evaluation committee (through which I discovered the UCSB actuarial program – thank you SOA!) and over the last 5-6 years I have been a member of the SOA’s Research Executive, chairing the committee in 2020-1. I have also been a co-editor of the North American Actuarial Journal since 2014, with a focus on making the journal more accessible to practitioners. I have served as a member of numerous Health Section and American Academy Health and International Section committees, though with my interest in education and research I mainly volunteer in the SOA. I have also served on Industry Committees (the Research Committee of the Disease Management Association) and was a board member of the Massachusetts Connector Authority 2007-14, an advisory board member of three start-up clinical companies, and two academic boards: the Rosenman Institute at UCSF and an NIH-funded institute at Texas A&M.
Agility/Change
Describe a significant change that you led in the workplace or in your volunteer activities. Explain what worked well and what could have gone better.
While I was on the SOA board, I was a member of the Marketing Executive committee at the time that the SOA decided to introduce a logo (the SOA had had a seal since 1948 but no logo). Our marketing colleagues developed alternatives for consideration. The SOA’s marketing department did research among actuaries to assess the reaction to the proposed new logos. As expected, opinions were divided, and the committee was deadlocked. I chaired the committee the following year when the logo remained under consideration. There appeared to be some support (but not enough for a decision) for one logo. In typical actuarial fashion, however, the decision was held up by indecision and debate – the perfect being sought rather than the merely good. I worked diligently with SOA marketing, using the results of their research as well as with individual members of the committee and the board (board approval was required) eventually gaining consensus in favor of the new logo. I believe that the logo has been a success; it is widely used and recognized in the profession and the initial complaints have quickly dissipated.
Motivating/Influencing
Describe a difficult situation or disagreement that you had in a professional setting during which opinions varied and you worked through the issues that led to a successful result.
In my practice I deal with many start-up founders and CEOs of clinical and medical management companies. My clients tend to be clinicians and finance professionals without insurance knowledge (a very non-traditional actuarial audience that is often unfamiliar with actuaries and actuarial work). The ability to learn from clinicians while at the same time demonstrating the value that actuaries bring to their businesses has been both challenging and rewarding. Founders and entrepreneurs generally overestimate the value that their companies represent to healthcare problems in the US. In many cases application of actuarial and economics techniques dispels this illusion. At this point we enter an extensive learning and negotiating process in which we dig deeper into clinical processes and claims data in collaboration with the client. Clients often have additional valid data and listening to them and absorbing their data, while explaining the actuarial process results in a satisfactory and agreed product.
Diversity
What additional actions do you think the Board should take regarding diversity, equity and inclusion?
The SOA has implemented a number of DEI initiatives recently. However, from my perspective as a professor who sees perhaps one Hispanic student in my class (in California!) each year, and almost never sees a black student, we are insufficiently focused on the middle-school and high school level. Students will not choose the profession if they are inadequately prepared in mathematics. The Math Motivators program (which we support at UCSB) has helped a bit but more needs to be done. Describing the work of the actuary in a way that gets young people excited isn’t just a DEI thing though – we somehow need to convince an entire generation of students that risk is everywhere, and that managing risk is a rewarding career.
International
What can the SOA Board do to balance the needs of our global membership? How will your experience help the Board accomplish this?
I am a fellow of both the Institute (London) and Canadian Institute; while I understand the drive to nationalize education and governance. I am troubled by the lack of integration between national bodies around education and exams. This is particularly acute where actuarial associations are instituting their own examination systems. In a small profession chronically short of volunteers this duplication is a criminal waste of resources. The primary technical education of actuaries (ASA level) should be common across organizations and offered as joint qualifying exams. Fellowship material remains national and can be offered by country. Differences in approach to university education make the primary exams more difficult to harmonize but with the new UCEP system this should be possible. My sense (as a distant observer) is that the board has been somewhat passive in this area, approving proposals from staff rather than providing strategic direction.
The second area that requires attention is the support of international students in the US. A large percentage of my class are international and wish to remain in the US; visas are a difficult problem for both students and employers. While there may not be much that the SOA (and the profession more broadly) can do about this I believe that we should try. (The UK actuarial profession was involved with the UK government when there was a shortage of actuaries in the early 2000s to obtain visa relief.) More exposure of international students to the US will help to strengthen our international ties.
Emerging
Recently, the number of new candidates for actuarial exams has been declining. What additional actions should the Board take on this topic in relation to keeping the SOA successful?
I opposed university exam credits when I was on the board, believing that Students should experience the rigor of our professional exams and because I believe that administering a consistent system across hundreds of universities poses an impossible challenge. I have reluctantly changed my mind on this topic since 2015, largely because of the rapid change in education more generally. The exam system is proving to be an obstacle to attracting talented students who believe that data science provides a more flexible and rewarding career path without exams. As an employer I find that most of the material entry-level employees enter with is irrelevant to our business and that we have to train them in what is relevant (including speaking, writing and presentation skills). The exception (unfortunately) is their data science and programming skills. A university credit in exams P, FM and some form of PA exam that would allow a student to enter the workforce and study relevant material while working seems feasible to me.
The latest syllabus seems to me to go in the wrong direction, packing in more material rather than determining the basic minimum. At the other (experienced) end of the spectrum actuaries are simply inadequately trained in modern statistical and financial topics that our PhD students study at the university. While advanced education isn’t for every actuary, I believe that there is a body of actuaries who would take advantage of advanced credentials (D. Act. Sc.?) if we could determine how to offer such a degree. It might also produce more practical research of relevance to practitioners.
A real strategic re-think of our education seems to me to be required.