Announcement: SOA releases passing candidate numbers for September 2019 Exam P.

2017 Living to 100 Monograph

Table of Contents by Session

January 4-6, 2017
Orlando, Fla.

The Living to 100 monograph is composed of the papers, panel discussions and keynote sessions presented at the symposium.

 

Participating Organizations

Sponsors

Program

Presentations

Podcasts

 

 

Forewords
by the Outgoing and Incoming Committee Chairs, Timothy F. Harris and Jean-Marc Fix

Timothy Harris Jean Marc - Fix

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nir BarzilaiGeneral Session I: Featured Presentation: How to Die Young at a Very Old Age
Nir Barzilai, M.D.      

Video 

 

 

 

Session 1A: Data Sources and Analysis

Compiling a Very Large Sample of Centenarian Pedigrees to Ascertain Patterns of Inheritance and a Familial Propensity for Longevity Score
Lisa Nussbaum, Giacomo Nebbia, Annie Helmkamp, Stacy Andersen, Thomas Perls, and Paola Sebastiani

Abstract
Complete Paper

 

Regional Mortality in the United States at Ages 80 and Older: An Analysis of Direct Estimates over Period 1959-2011
Kirill Andreev, Danan Gu and Matthew Dupre

Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments: Thomas P. Edwalds

Informal Discussion Transcript

 

Session 1B: Late Life Mortality Curves

 

Mortality Trajectories at Exceptionally High Ages: A Study of Supercentenarians
Natalia S. Gavrilova, Leonid A. Gavrilov and Vyacheslav N. Krut'ko

Abstract
Complete Paper

 

Historical Evolution of Old-Age Mortality and New Approaches to Mortality Forecasting 
Leonid A. Gavrilov, Natalia S. Gavrilova and Vyacheslav N. Krut'ko

Abstract
Complete Paper

 

Where is the Level of the Mortality Plateau?
Roland Rau, Marcus Ebeling, Frederik Peters, Christina Bohk-Ewald, and Trifon I. Missov

Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments: Jean-Marie Robine

Informal Discussion Transcript

 

Session 1C: Panel: Impact of Aging: What are the Biggest Current Policy Challenges Emerging from the UK/US/Canada as a Result of Aging?
Moderator: Anna M. Rappaport
Panelists: Robert L. Brown, John Cutler and David Sinclair

Transcript

 

Session 2A: Panel: Drivers of Future Mortality

Moderator: Allen M. Klein
Panelists: Allen M. Klein,  Phillip Smalley and Laurie M. Orlov

Transcript

 

Session 2B: Older Age Mortality Trends

 

Extreme Value Analysis of Mortality at the Oldest Ages: A Case Study Based on Individual Ages at Death
Samuel Gbari, Michel Poulain, Luc Dal, and Michel Denuit

Abstract
Complete Paper

 

Improvement in Late-Life Mortality and Its Impact on the Increase in the Number of Centenarians in Quebec (Canada)
Mélissa Beaudry-Godin, Robert Bourbeau and Bertrand Desjardins

Abstract
Complete Paper

 

Accuracy of Official High-Age Population Estimates, In England and Wales: An Evaluation 
Presenter: Adrian Gallop

Discussant Comments: Jean-Marc Fix

Informal Discussion Transcript

 

Session 2C: Panel: Impact of Aging: What Can Individuals and the Private Sector Do to Address the Challenges Resulting from Aging?
Moderator: Bob Powell
Panelists: Susana Harding, Cindy Hounsell and David Sinclair

Transcript

 

General Session II: Insights into Successful Aging
Moderator: Steven G. Vernon
Panelists: Liz Davidson, Cynthia Hutchins and Jim Toole 

Transcript

 

Judith CampisiGeneral Session III: Featured Presentation: Suppressing Aging and Extending Longevity: Will the Twain Meet?
Presenter: Judith Campisi, Ph.D.   

Video



Session 3A: Mortality Inequality: Impact of Socioeconomic Factors

Mortality Projections with Explicit Consideration of Behavioral Factors
Sam Gutterman

Abstract

Complete Paper

 

Causal Mortality by Socioeconomic Circumstances: A Model to Assess the Impact of Policy Options on Inequalities in Life Expectancy
Daniel H. Alai, Séverine Arnold, Madhavi Bajekal, and Andrés M. Villegas

Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments: S. Jay Olshansky 

Informal Discussion Transcript

 

Session 3B: Comparing Mortality of Different Groups

 

Longevity Greeks: What Should Insurers and Capital Market Investors Know About?
Kenneth Q. Zhou and Johnny S.-H. Li 

Abstract
Complete Paper

 

Using Life Table Techniques to Model Mortality Rates for Small Populations
Jack C. Yue and Hsin Chung Wang

Abstract
Complete Paper

 

A Comprehensive Analysis of the Patterns of Worldwide Mortality Evolution
Martin Genz

Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments: Kai Kaufhold

Informal Discussion Transcript

 

Session 3C: Panel: Challenges and Strategies for Financing an Increasingly Long Life
Moderator: David G. Boettcher
Panelists: Vickie Bajtelsmit, David G. Boettcher, Liz Davidson, and Benoit G. Miclette 

Transcript

 

Session 4A: Longevity in the Public Eye

 

Health Technology, Health Care Cost, Longevity and Retirement Security: A Dynamic Upward Spiral and Challenge to Future Policy
Daniel W. Bailey

Abstract
Complete Paper

 

Financial Shocks, Unexpected Expenses of and Financial Experiences of Older Americans
Anna M. Rappaport

Abstract
Complete Paper

Discussant Comments: Sam Gutterman

Informal Discussion Transcript

 

Session 4B: Mortality Projections

 

Grouped Multivariate and Functional Time Series Forecasting: An Application to Annuity Pricing
Han Lin Shang and Steven Haberman

Abstract
Complete Paper

 

Mortality Improvement Rates: Modelling and Parameter Uncertainty
Andrew Hunt and Andrés M. Villegas

Abstract
Complete Paper

 

On the Heterogenity of Human Population as Reflected by the Mortality Dynamics
Séverine Arnold

Discussant Comments: W. Ward Kingkade

Informal Discussion Transcript

 

Session 4C: Panel: Innovative Business Solutions to Respond to an Aging Society
Moderator: Timothy F. Harris
Panelists: Lisa D’Ambrosio and Jodi Olshevski

Transcript

 

General Session IV: Panel: Featured Presentation: Mortality Projection from a Social Security Panel
Moderator: Sam Gutterman
Panelists: Stephen C. Goss, Adrian Gallop, Jean-Claude Menard, Annie St-Jacques, and Mark Bye

Prominent social security actuaries discuss mortality projections at 2017 Living to 100 symposium.

 

Video

 

General Session V: The Nitty Gritty of Human Mortality Database
Moderator: R. Dale Hall
Panelist: Magali Barbieri

Transcript

 

Session 5A: SOA Mortality and Longevity Research
Moderator: R. Dale Hall
Panelists: R. Dale Hall, Cynthia MacDonald and Andrew J. Peterson

Transcript

 

Session 5B: What is Different Today for Post-Retirement Financial Planning?
Moderator: Jean-Marc Fix
Presenters: Tamara Burden

Transcript

 

Session 6A: Mortality Improvement Approaches
Moderator: Jean-Marc Fix
Presenters: Laurence Pinzur

Transcript

 

Session 6B: The Changing Face of Eldercare
Moderator: Anna M. Rappaport
Presenter: Phyllis Mitzen

Transcript

 

General Session VI: Senior Citizen in 2050
Moderator: Jean-Marc Fix
Panelists: S. Jay Olshansky, Neil Charness, Thomas Getzen, Robert Bourbeau, and Philip Smalley          

Transcript