Description: This paper uses the ideal quasi-natural experiment of government-subsidized agricultural insurance program phased out in different regions of China since 2007 to study the effects and transmission mechanisms of the program on alleviating regional poverty using a multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach. Specifically, this paper identifies the causal effects on the incidence, depth and intensity of poverty among rural residents. The research has important policy implications. First, this paper uses the program as a case to provide a research paradigm to estimate effects of implementing policy instruments that combine markets and government mandates. Second, as common prosperity is now a government imperative, the research also provides insights into ways insurance can be used to hedge income risks, alleviate poverty and help achieve more equitable distribution. The paper has been published on WeChat account of Chinese Association of Actuaries on February 9, 2022. The full version has been published in CSSCI journal Insurance Research, issue 11, 2021.

Description: An introductory article describing how Bayesian statistics has evolved over the past 20 years and why it offers the actuarial discipline powerful tools to better understand and manage risk. Compared with traditional (frequentist) and black-box (machine learning) approaches, Bayesian analysis provides explainable models focused on distributions of estimates instad of simply point estimates.

Description: The momentum in value-based care has produced an opportunity for actuaries to become pioneers in health care

Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: Expect to cover key points from the Living to 100 conference around living and social environments for the elderly. Following the review will be a discussion about implications related to LTCI plans and policies around living environments. It will conclude with a peak behind the curtain for pricing for CCRCs.

Description: This article studies the syllabus as a dynamic, interactive teaching tool that informs and is informed by both solutions of complex course problems and student difficulties with these problems.

Description: As actuaries in health care, we spend most of our time focused on reviewing claims, enrollment and clinical data. That information is captured while patients are in health care facilities. Yet most people spend only a small fraction of their time in these facilities. This article explores what types of data are available to actuaries the provide a more holistic view of the member so that a members physical and emotional needs, the social determinants of health can be taken into consideration along with their clinical needs. Two uses cases are presented so actuaries can see how these types of analyses can be leveraged to improve clinical, operational, and financial performance of risk bearing health entities. Understanding the customer (member) not just the patient enables actuaries to provide new insights and values to our stakeholders across a wide range of business and risk applications.

Description: The recent wave of innovation in GenAI has unlocked an entirely new category of AI applications. Whereas AI has traditionally focused on automation and predictions, LLM’s and Generative AI give us the opportunity to create AI applications that act as copilots. This emphasis on contelligence and empowering knowledge workers has already begun to change the way work is done. High expertise knowledge workers such as actuaries will be able to use this wave of AI Apps to make better decisions and dedicate more of their attention to the parts of the role that require domain expertise and judgement. Join Charles Morris, Microsoft’s Chief Data Scientist for Financial Services, as he talks about the latest advancements in this space and the opportunities it creates for expert knowledge workers. Charles Morris is the Chief Data Scientist for Financial Services at Microsoft. Charles has deep expertise in the financial services domain and works with many of the world’s leading asset managers, banks, insurance companies, and financial platforms to develop and execute their AI strategies.Currently, Charles is focused on applying Generative AI to financial services and advising many top financial institutions in building their own copilots and reimagining their businesses.Charles is a data scientist and machine learning engineer by profession and an expert in MLOps. Before joining Microsoft, Charles practiced data science, machine learning, and cloud engineering in the asset management industry. He has been a featured keynote speaker at several prestigious events and forums and is a highly sought after public speaker in the domain of AI and Innovation.

Description: In this session, attendees will understand the role of AI in risk management and underwriting. You will see insightful case studies highlighting AI-driven techniques for enhancing precision and efficiency in these areas. Additionally, the session will cover advanced AI applications in claim management and fraud detection, showcasing cutting-edge strategies to mitigate risks and streamline operations.

Description: Understanding Asian Capital Regimes