Description: As actuaries, we’re trained to see patterns in numbers and to design solutions that mitigate risk. But I can tell you from experience that while quantitative analysis and modeling are critical actuarial tools, looking at the numbers alone can lead to insurance products that don’t succeed in the real world the way the math says they “should.” With new digital technologies, we have more data at our fingertips than ever before, but I believe it’s equally as important to bring qualitative research methodologies into your product development process if you want to design solutions that meet real needs in the market. In this article, Amanda Turcotte shares what happens when qualitative research is neglected or ignored, what happens when you incorporate it into the product design process, and how to implement qualitative research practices in your organization.

Description: In recent years, vast amount of data from emerging experiences has helped insurers gain a deeper understanding of their policyholders and the factors driving their behaviors. However, due to limitations in traditional experience study methods, this understanding typically remains at the cohort level. This series of articles proposes a novel machine learning-based model that analyzes and predicts policyholder behaviors at the individual policy level. Policyholder embedding representations are learned using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) that takes into account the sequence of historical transactions associated with a policy. Additionally, a Neural Network with a multi-head architecture is trained to predict the policyholder's next action based on the policyholder embedding and other policy attributes. The resulting model offers several advantages over traditional experience studies and assumption-setting methods, including the ability to set policy-level assumptions that improve reserve accuracy, predict multiple behaviors simultaneously while capturing the interrelationships between them, and generate policyholder embedding representations that are useful for segmentation.

Description: This report examines lapse experience on individual disability income insurance products by various policyholder and product factors. The study can be used for industry benchmarking as well as for background information for product development and planning purposes.

Description: This article discusses key considerations and differences in measurement requirements between IFRS 17 and LDTI, leveraging a term insurance example to illustrate potential impacts on liabilities and, ultimately, earnings emergence.

Description: The growing global recognition of the importance of climate-related risks (transition and physical) has triggered a significant demand for research on the interface between climate and actuarial sciences, for example on the impact of risks from climate change on insurance markets and their operations. Furthermore, the systemic nature of climate-related risks underpins actuaries’ need to engage and work with diverse groups of stakeholders, including clients, communities, governments, regulators, boards, and investors. Contributions are invited for a special issue of the Annals of Actuarial Science featuring research on the topic ‘Managing Climate-Related Risks’. This special issue aims to capture leading interdisciplinary thinking, with clear relevance to actuarial problems in pensions and insurance.

Description: With coinsurance of an existing block of long-duration insurance contracts, there may be existing reinsurance that remains in force. The new coinsurance is typically net of such “inuring reinsurance.” In this article, we look at approaches that the new reinsurer might apply to account for the effects of inuring reinsurance.

Description: This paper uses the ideal quasi-natural experiment of government-subsidized agricultural insurance program phased out in different regions of China since 2007 to study the effects and transmission mechanisms of the program on alleviating regional poverty using a multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach. Specifically, this paper identifies the causal effects on the incidence, depth and intensity of poverty among rural residents. The research has important policy implications. First, this paper uses the program as a case to provide a research paradigm to estimate effects of implementing policy instruments that combine markets and government mandates. Second, as common prosperity is now a government imperative, the research also provides insights into ways insurance can be used to hedge income risks, alleviate poverty and help achieve more equitable distribution. The paper has been published on WeChat account of Chinese Association of Actuaries on February 9, 2022. The full version has been published in CSSCI journal Insurance Research, issue 11, 2021.

Description: After years of discussion and debate, PrinciplesBased Reserving (PBR) is finally a reality. Small insurance companies have a unique opportunity to decide between electing for the company-wide exemption or adopting the PBR methods. This article discusses the benefits and challenges of the options available to small insurers under VM-20 as well as best practices that have been found along the way.

Description: Technology now supports customized non-level death benefits which help consumers optimize their coverage and cost. Creating individual policies and individually pricing them for a level premium quote is the start of personalizing and optimizing coverage and cost for consumers and pricing life insurance policies at the individual consumer level --- a revolution for actuaries.

Description: Lifetime pension pools convert a lump sum into lifelong income, periodically adjusting benefit payouts based on mortality and investment experience. Volatility-targeting strategies can enhance benefit stability by dynamically adjusting the investment portfolio’s exposure to risky assets in the context of these pools, demonstrating superior performance compared to traditional static asset allocation methods.