Living to 100 and Beyond Monograph

• January 12–14, 2005
• The Hilton Hotel, Walt Disney World Resort
• Lake Buena Vista, FL

• Foreword
• Robert J. Johansen

Session 1: Increased Longevity and the Challenge of Determining qx at Extreme Ages–Part 1

• Ending the Mortality Table
• Edwin C. Hustead
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Analysis of Trends in the Age–Specific Shape of Mortality Curves for Populations in the United States and Japan
• Christine Dugan, Hande Gulumser, Richard Humble, Daniel Ryan
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Discussant comments: Allen M. Klein
• Informal discussion transcript

Session 2: Impact of Aging Populations–Part 1

• The Effects of Advanced Age Mortality Improvements on the Valuation of Variable Annuities with Guaranteed Death Benefits
• Lijia Guo
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• The Impact of the Equity Risk Premium and Population Aging on the Canadian Retirement Savings System
• Doug Andrews
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• An Investigation of Select Birth Cohorts
• Richard MacMinn, Krzysztof Ostaszewski, Ranee Thiagarajah, Frederik Weber
• Abstract
• Complete paper
• Discussant comments: J. Bruce MacDonald
• Informal discussion transcript

Session 3: Theories of Longevity

• The Great Debate on the Outlook for Human Longevity: Exposition and Critical Evaluation of Two Divergent Views
• Jacob S. Siegel
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Search for Predictors of Exceptional Human Longevity: Using Computerized Genealogies and Internet Resources for Human Longevity Studies
• Natalia S. Gavrilova, Leonid A. Gavrilov
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Trajectories of Disability and Mortality Among the U.S. Elderly Population: Evidence From the 1984–1999 NLTCS
• P.J. Eric Stallard
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• The Interdependency of Increasing Life Expectancy and Driving Life Expectancy of Elderly Populations
• Chao–Chun (Vickie) Leng, Min–Ming Wen
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Discussant comments: S. Jay Olshansky
• Discussant comments: Robert K. Gleeson
• Informal discussion transcript

Session 4: Increased Longevity and the Challenge of Determining qx at Extreme Ages–Part 2

• Mortality at Advanced Ages in the United Kingdom
• Adrian Gallop, Angus S. Macdonald
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Coping with Longevity–The New German Annuity Valuation Table DAV 2004 R
• Ulrich Pasdika, Jürgen Wolff
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Discussant comments: Thomas Buettner
• Informal discussion transcript

Session 5: Impact of Aging Populations–Part 2

• Implications of an Aging Population in India: Challenges and Opportunities
• Prakash Bhattacharya
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Shapes and Limits of Longevity in Mexico
• Roberto Ham–Chande
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• What if Mortality Was to Diminish Much More than Was Forecast? Implications for Financing Social Security
• Robert Bourbeau, Bertrand Desjardins, Jacques Légaré
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• High–Age Implications of Postretirement Risks
• Anna M. Rappaport, Monica Dragut
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Discussant comments: John W. Paddon
• Informal discussion transcript

Session 6: Data Sources, Quality and Analyses

• IDL, the International Database on Longevity
• Jean–Marie Robine, Amandine Cournil, Jutta Gampe, James W. Vaupel
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Number of Centenarians in the United States Jan. 1, 1990, Jan. 1, 2000, and Jan. 1, 2010, Based on Improved Medicare Data
• Bertram M. Kestenbaum, B. Reneé Ferguson
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Seasons and Longevity: Mortality Trajectories Among the Oldest Old
• Jean–Marie Robine, Siu Lan K Cheung, Fred Paccaud
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Data Quality of Oldest–Old Population in Taiwan: 2003 Census for Ages 89 and Above
• Ching–Syang Jac Yu (Jack C. Yue)
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Discussant comments: Thomas N. Herzog
• Discussant comments: Leonid A. Gavrilov
• Informal discussion transcript

Session 7: Mortality "Laws" and Models–Part 1

• "Makeham–Type" Mortality Models
• Marie Redina L. Mumpar–Victoria, Augusto Y. Hermosilla, Ronnie M. Mirandilla
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Extreme Value Analysis of Advanced Age Mortality Data
• Kathryn A. Robertson, Debbie J. Dupuis, Bruce L. Jones
• Abstract
• Complete paper
• Charts and Tables
•  
• Living to 100 and Beyond: An Extreme Value Study
• Zhongxian (Jerry) Han
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Discussant comments: Thomas P. Edwalds
• Informal discussion transcript

Session 8: Mortality "Laws" and Models–Part 2

• The Lee–Carter Model for Forecasting Mortality Revisited
• Siu–hang Li, Wai–sum Chan
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Application of Mortality Models to Japan
• Masakazu Ozeki
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Discussant comments: Robert L. Brown
• Informal discussion transcript
•  
• Group Luncheon Presentation: The Evolving Elderly Population of the United States
• W. Ward Kingkade
• Abstract
• Complete paper
•  
• Panel Discussion: Implications of Increasing Life Spans for the Private Sector
• Steven C. Siegel
• Complete paper