Description: Technical paper on how to efficiently perform scenario testing for principle-based approaches.

Description: Summary of the SOA's research report Modern Deterministic Scenarios for Interest Rates, which developed interest rate scenarios for use in cash flow testing.

Description: This article summarizes a method for measuring the credibility of a prediction from a logistic generalized linear model (GLM).

Description: Summary of SOA research report "Optimizing Risk Retention" which applies parametric survival models and Monte Carlo simulation to a block of term life business.

Description: With many complex regulatory changes on the horizon as well as pressures to ensure model accuracy from auditors, regulatory requirements and new actuarial standards of practice, the importance of robust model validation is coming to the forefront of actuaries’ minds. What was previously a day-two task for many companies is becoming just as important as model development! In this session, you will hear from those that have been deeply involved in building model validation frameworks and tools in responses to regulatory changes GAAP Long Duration Targeted Improvements (“LDTI”) and Principles Based Reserves (“PBR”).

Description: The cloud inspires awe and fear in equal parts these days. There is a need to learn more, but there’s much information to learn and it may be difficult to know what to learn next. In this session, we’ll carve off a small corner of the cloud and make it your own. Setting up a Data Science Virtual Machine on Digital Ocean will be demonstrated. It’s the fastest way to get a data science development environment setup for your own use. Many of the topics and ideas covered will apply to almost all other cloud offerings. What use cases Digital Ocean is good for, and what use cases you should look elsewhere for, will also be discussed.

Description: The Product Development Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Modeling Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research are pleased to present new research on modeling and forecasting cause-of-death mortality. Authored by a Milliman team led by Alexandre Boumezoued, the report develops a framework for forecasting cause specific death rates. Included also is a Cause of Deaths Forecasting Tool and a user guide for the tool.

Description: This paper presents an analysis of mortality in a sample of 441adults aged 55 to 85 at baseline, who were observed for eight years. The study was initiated for the purpose of analyzing age-related changes in a variety of physical variables and their impact on functional independence. The modeling approach is discussed and the factors which were most significantly related to mortality.

Description: Eric Friedman’s comments on ‘The Case for Stochastic Present Values,” by Dimitry Mindlin

Description: This paper develops an option pricing model that takes cost of capital concepts as its foundation rather than dynamic replication. The resulting model, called the 'C' measure in this paper, is related to the family of Affine Jump Diffusion models that are well known in the finance literature, so it is fairly easy to understand and implement. We argue that this is a reasonable model to use for estimating equity implied volatilities that are beyond the five- to 10-year horizon that can typically be observed in today‘s capital markets. The paper concludes with a short discussion of how to grade from observable market data to the 'C' measure.