Modeling Long Term Healthcare Cost Trends – Update for 2018

The Society of Actuaries' Pension Section and Health Section Research teams originally commissioned Professor Thomas E. Getzen of Temple University to construct a resource model for the projection of long term healthcare cost trends.  The Society of Actuaries continues to make annual updates to the model to ensure its usefulness and relevancy.

The model projects per-person expenditures and growth rates through 2099 using a set of equations and assumptions developed by Professor Getzen with assistance from the Society of Actuaries Project Oversight Group appointed to oversee the updates. The data sources underlying the model assumptions have been clearly specified in the Technical Documentation providing transparency and support for the ultimate results. The model, programmed in Microsoft Excel, includes baseline assumptions as well as flexibility for user–inputted alternative assumptions. In addition, the Project Oversight Group has written a document describing practical issues for actuaries using the model.

You can individually download the model and related documents by clicking the links to the right.

The Society of Actuaries would like to thank the members of the Project Oversight Group for their time and valuable input.

Kevin Binder

Michael DeLeon

Robert Schmidt

Eric Viney

Rebecca Owen, SOA Health Research Actuary

Steven Siegel, SOA Research Actuary

Disclaimer for Software Posted on Web site

Important: The Long Term Healthcare Costs Trend Resource Model 2018 ("Software") posted on this site is the property of the Society of Actuaries ("SOA") and is protected under U.S. and international copyright laws. It was created for the SOA by Professor Thomas E. Getzen.

The Software has been developed for the benefit of actuaries FOR EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY, although others may find it useful. SOA makes the Software available to individual users for their personal use on a non–exclusive basis. No commercial use, reproduction or distribution is permitted whatsoever.

SOA and the authors make no warranty, guarantee, or representation, either expressed or implied, regarding the Software, including its quality, accuracy, reliability, or suitability, and HEREBY DISCLAIM ANY WARRANTY REGARDING THE SOFTWARE'S MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE. SOA and the authors make no warranty that the Software is free from errors, defects, worms, viruses or other elements or codes that manifest contaminating or destructive properties. In no event shall SOA or the authors be liable for any damages (including any lost profits, lost savings, or direct, indirect, incidental, consequential or other damages) in connection with or resulting from the use, misuse, reliance on, or performance of any aspect of the Software including any instructions or documentation accompanying the Software. SOA and the authors make no representation or warranty of non–infringement of proprietary rights of others with respect to the Software. The entire risk as to the uses, outputs, analyses, results and performance of the Software is assumed by the user. This Disclaimer applies regardless of whether the Software is used alone or with other software.

Disclaimer for Materials Posted on this Web Page: The model, accompanying documentation, and methodologies contained herein do not represent an official position, statement, or endorsement on behalf of the Society of Actuaries or its members, nor should the material be construed to do so. It is the product of a research effort commissioned by the Society of Actuaries to add to the library of resource tools for the estimation of long term health care cost trends and further knowledge in that area. The model is neither intended to preclude the use of other methodologies for estimation of long term health care cost trends for any purpose nor provide a statement or position on the use, application, or preferability of other methodologies as compared to the methodology described herein.