Edition

Climate Change Contributions to Key Adverse Effects from Excessive Heat

Background and Purpose

July 2023 was the hottest month on record in parts of the Southwest U.S. and was also the hottest month on record globally and 2023 was the hottest reported year globally. It will be helpful to study the impacts of excessive heat and its applicability to actuarial practice, including quantification of risks resulting from it.

It would be valuable to examine thoughts regarding the extent climate change factors are or will be contributing to excessive heat related morbidity or mortality over the short or long term, including probable scenarios and quantifications of morbidity and mortality costs, risks and uncertainties. The SOA Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program is seeking essays on this topic.

The collection of essays will be published on the Climate Change Contributions to Key Adverse Effects from Excessive Heat SOA webpage that will explore the many impacts of excessive heat on mortality, morbidity, property damage, and other costs, and the combination of excessive heat and other climate change factors. In particular, we are looking for discussion of one or more applications to actuarial practice and quantification of risks resulting from excessive heat.

The first article in the collection has already been published on the above page. It is titled It's Hot Outside!, authored by SOA Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Steering Committee member Sam Gutterman. Authors are encouraged to read this initial article in the collection prior to submitting your essay for background and food for your thoughts.

Scope

There are several important overarching considerations regarding the scope of this call for essays:

  • July 2023 was a record setting month, and 2023 was a record-setting year.
  • With other climate-related risks, future year impacts could be worse.
  • There are unanswered questions regarding this risk.
  • Heat related risks can impact mortality, morbidity, business interruption, lost productivity, as well as infrastructures.

Sample Topics of Interest for Essays

The organizers seek essays that address the issue of climate change contributions to key adverse effects from excessive heat. This invitation has been deliberately written broadly to allow respondents the flexibility to address this topic from one or more perspectives and approaches. Respondents are free to choose from one or more of the following sample topics below or propose others that fall within the scope of this area as described in the above section. Please note that the list is not meant to be exhaustive but merely examples of proposed topics that may be considered. Respondents are welcome to address other questions or topics that fall under the general scope of this call for essays.

Sample topics include:

  • What are the applications to actuarial practice of the risks from excessive heat?
  • How can these risks be quantified?
  • How can the points in the initial article It's Hot Outside! in the series Climate Change Contributions to Key Adverse Effects from Excessive Heat be elaborated upon?
  • To what extent are climate-related risks impacting the heat related impacts to life and health insurance?
  • What are probable scenarios and what are the quantification of morbidity and mortality costs, risks and uncertainties under these scenarios?
  • What other factors could make risks more severe, e.g., el Niños, humidity, and pre-existing medical conditions.
  • What role do risks from excessive heat play in Workers Compensation insurance, lost productivity, land subsidence risk?
  • Looking at 2023 as a record year, and looking at the impacts of other future climate-related risks, what can we expect in various areas of actuarial practice to provide for these risks and impacts?
  • What can the actuarial profession do to provide input to the process for mitigation, adaptation and resilience to excessive heat related perils?
  • What are the primary and secondary impacts from heat? For example, with respect to morbidity and mortality that would lead to loss of productivity, or damage to infrastructure leading to business interruption.
  • Consider the individual, private sector business. or the government view of these impacts.

Rules for Submission of Essays

Timeline

The deadline for submissions is February 15, 2024. Essays will be published as soon as possible in a formal collection.

Length and Instructions for Submission

Essays must be submitted in English with a desired length of between 500 to 2,500 words. There is no requirement for formal or extensive footnoting.

Author information must be submitted with the essay and include name; credentials or designations (if appropriate); title; organization/company; e-mail address; and phone number. Please provide all author information at the beginning of the essay.

Essays that contain any overt political statements, commercial content, and other inappropriate material will not be accepted. Articles must comply with the SOA's antitrust guidelines.

Please submit your essay via e–mail to the SOA Research Institute Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program at Research-CC@soa.org.

Awards

The Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program review committee will select the leading essays and may elect to award prize money. Up to $2,000 in award money has been set aside for this call for essays. The best essays selected for awards would receive $1,000 for 1st Place, $500 for 2nd Place, and $250 for 3rd Place and 4th Place. Consideration will be given to creativity, originality and the extent to which an idea could contribute to the further development of solutions to address this issue. In exchange for award money, selected authors will be required to assign all copyrights in their essays to the Society of Actuaries.

Authors are ineligible for awards if an essay is based on an SOA-sponsored and funded research study conducted by the author. However, authors are welcome to submit such essays for publication consideration.

Publication and Presentation

Depending on how many essays are received and the range of the topic areas, a suitable format for electronic publication and dissemination will be selected. Essays may also be presented at an SOA meeting, webcast, or other professional development event.

In addition, other venues for publication or presentation of the ideas outside of the Institute will be considered. It is hoped that publication of the collected essays will further knowledge and stimulate discussion as well as promote future efforts in this area.

Rights Granted

Please understand that by submitting an essay for consideration, the essay author(s) is granting to the Society of Actuaries Research Institute an unlimited license to print or republish their essay, with proper attribution given to the author(s).

Questions

Please direct any questions regarding this Call for Essays to Research-CC@soa.org.