Future Financial or Socioeconomic Implications of Climate-Induced Migration Patterns
Background and Purpose
As climates change from place to place, the areas considered desirable to live or work may change. This can represent not only that some areas become less habitable, but other areas become more desirable. The effect of this can be to place greater strain on public infrastructure in the desirable areas, and economic decline in undesired areas. This can influence family structure, retirement decisions, insurance cost and availability, health system infrastructure, and more. Climate-related impacts causing migration can range from drought, wildfires, excessive flooding, excessive storm impacts, heat and coastal erosion, among others.
Research Objective
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Steering Committee [The Committee] is seeking researchers to study the impacts of climate-induced migration on various areas which can influence the delivery of services and availability of insurance coverages. The following are examples of proposed topics that may be addressed:
- Past evidence of climate induced migrations and impacts to economy, health care costs, real estate values.
- Effects of how climate-induced migration may impact, and how climate refugees may be impacted by: retirement decisions, cost of insurance, health system infrastructure, etc.
- Projections of which areas may see increases and decreases in population, and how the make-up of populations may differ, post-migration changes, and what the impacts will be. They may include emigration from damaged residences/businesses (e.g., from multiple floods).
- Types of insurance coverages that will be impacted, and how insurers can react to, and/or plan for these changes, and what they can begin to think about now.
- Migration compounding effects.
- Extent of and differences between types of migration, for example, State to State, Country to Country, Rural to Urban, etc. migration.
- How will these outcomes affect different areas of actuarial practice: Life, Health, Auto, Property, Retirement, Investment, ERM?
- Identification of potential risks and measurement of the impact of local efforts to adjust/mitigate the risk, etc.
- Economic and labor force effects.
- Impact on housing values in areas where people are moving from and areas where people are moving to.
Note that the list above is not meant to be exhaustive but merely examples of proposed topics that may be researched.
Proposal Requirements
To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:
- Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
- An outline of the approach to be used (e.g. literature search, model, etc.), emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis.
- A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources.
- Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
Please note that as a policy, the SOA Research Institute generally does not provide funding to cover academic institution overhead expenses.
As a guide for developing the project budget, please review the Historical Project Cost Guide (see Appendix) - A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The Committee is interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
- Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.
Selection Process
The Committee will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project. The Committee is responsible for recommending the proposal to be funded. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the Committee will make the final recommendation, subject to Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) leadership approval. An SOA staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.
Questions
Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to Research-CC@soa.org .
Notification of Intent to submit Proposal
If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by April 22, 2024 to Research-CC@soa.org.
Submission of Proposal
Please email your proposal to Research-CC@soa.org; proposals must be received no later than May 6, 2024. It is anticipated that all proposers will be informed of the status of their proposal by the end June 2024.
Conditions
The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the researcher.
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The Society of Actuaries Research Institute also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the [Society of Actuaries/sponsoring entity] in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.
The Society of Actuaries may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.
Conflict of Interest
You agree to disclose any of your material business, financial and organizational interests and affiliations which are or may be construed to be reasonably related to the interest, activities and programs of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.
Appendix
The cost ranges below are intended as a guide for budgeting project costs for proposals in response to SOA Research Institute Request for Proposals (RFP). Please note these figures span the 33rd to 66th percentiles for all projects as well as projects that involve a specific approach (lit review, survey, etc.). They are based on historical costs over several recent years. Expected costs for some RFPs may fall outside these ranges depending on the nature of the work and resources required for completion.
All Contracted Projects
This category includes all contracted projects that the Institute has undertaken within the last several years.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $25,000 - $50,000.
Literature Reviews
This category includes projects that involved only a literature review or the cost for the portion of a larger project that included a literature review.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $15,000 - $20,000.
Surveys
This category includes all projects that had a survey as their primary component.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $28,000 - $55,000.