Research Emerging Topics

This page contains emerging research topics in risk management in a variety of areas. As new reports and studies on risk management become available, you’ll find them listed below. Most reports are in PDF format.

Climate
General Insurance
U.S. Population

Climate

• In this category of risk management studies and reports, you’ll find research that explores how climate risk may affect the finance and insurance industries.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes
  February 2021
  

  This report series identifies and examines weather extremes in North America each month. Using data from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN), the reports identify and summarize unusual or extreme single-day or multi-day weather events. This report examines individual station records in the U.S. and Canada for four weather metrics from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN): Precipitation (PRCP), Snow (SNOW), Daily Maximum Temperature (TMAX), and Daily Minimum Temperature (TMIN). Extreme snow in the California / Nevada border area in late January produced nearly 70 inches of snow at one station, and reports from nearby areas indicated over 100 inches in a four-day period. Additionally, the report focuses on drought conditions which persist and compared to January 2020 are extreme.

• Determining the Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Human Health Outcomes: A Case Study on Heat Related Illness Attribution
  February 2021
  

  This report is targeted to actuaries that are interested in identifying the adverse human health outcomes resulting from anthropogenic climate change. As the primary focus of actuarial research is to promote human health and minimize the preventable economic burden, this document also provides recommendations to mitigate against excess heat related illness (HRI) due to extreme heat.

• Environmental Risk Series
  February 2021
  This report series explores various aspects of environmental risk.

• Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Newsletter
  January 2021
  This newsletter features information about the SOA’s upcoming Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program, along with featured research projects, recent news items, authored content recommendations and related research from other organizations.
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• COVID-19 Visualizations of Interest to Actuaries
  November 2020
  The SOA Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Steering Committee has sponsored these visualizations exploring the correlation between the COVID-19 pandemic and a theme of choice of the individual contributing authors.
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• Social Discounting - Application to the Risk Management of Climate Change
• September 2020
• A cost-benefit analysis plays a vital role in important social decision-making. The application of discount rates plays a crucial role in the quantitative portion of this analysis, especially when dealing with issues involving costs and benefits over prolonged periods. The objective of this paper is to discuss the factors that affect and should be considered in the development of social discount rates.
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• The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD)
  August 2020
  This paper has been published by the Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Program of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and is intended to be a part of ongoing education for actuaries on the topic of climate risks.

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• A Tool for Extracting Subsets of Data from GHCN Daily Dataset
  August 2020
  This Excel/VBA tool can extract temperature, precipitation and snowfall data from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) daily weather dataset, and run tabulations on the extracted data.

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• Residential Flood Risk in the United States: Quantifying Flood Losses, Mortgage Risk and Sea Level Rise
  May 2020
  This report evaluates the impact and evolution of societal risk management due to projected future changes in frequency, severity, and variety of weather-related catastrophes.
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• Trends in Normalized Weather-Related Property Losses in the United States: 1960–2018
• May 2020
• This report uses the Spatial Hazards Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS) to examine trends in normalized weather-related property losses from 1960 to the present. “Normalized” losses reflect an adjustment to account for the growth of exposure between the year of each loss and 2018. Exposure growth was estimated using county-level census data on housing units and state-level data on housing prices.
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• International Catastrophe Pooling for Extreme Weather
  October 2019
  This research studies catastrophe insurance pools covering losses caused by extreme weather events.
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• 2018 Environmental Sustainability Essays
• May 2019
• The Society of Actuaries’ (SOA) Climate & Environmental Sustainability Research Committee is pleased to present this essay collection, which focuses on unknown knowns: where we have data but the future looks different from the past.
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• Modeling, Measuring, and Pricing the Flood Risk 
  January 2019  
  This research will educate the actuarial community about the various shades of the flood risk, as well as about the state of the art in quantitative flood risk modeling.
  
  
• Incorporation of Flood and Other Catastrophe Model Results into Pricing and Underwriting
  July 2018 
  This research report on the incorporation of flood and other catastrophe model results into pricing and underwriting is prepared by the authors for the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, the Society of Actuaries, and the Casualty Actuarial Society.
  
  
• 2017 Environmental Sustainability Essays
  July 2018
  The Society of Actuaries’ (SOA) Climate & Environmental Sustainability Research Committee is pleased to present this essay collection, which shows how actuaries incorporate the financial risks of environmental sustainability into their work for their employers or clients.
  
  
• How Do They Know and What Could We Do? The Science of 21st Century Climate Projections and Opportunities for Actuaries
  May 2018
  This white paper provides actuaries with the necessary background and foundational scientific knowledge to understand global climate change and climate model projections for the 21st century.
  
  

• Predictive Modeling of Surface Temperature Extremes over North America with Actuarial Applications in View
  April 2018
  This project obtains ensemble simulations of surface atmospheric temperature over North America.

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• Managing Climate and Carbon Risk in Investment Portfolios
  February 2018
  This report focuses on analyzing and managing climate change and carbon risk in the equity investment portfolios of insurance company and pension fund assets.
  
  
• Climate, Weather, and Environmental Sources for Actuaries
  April 2017
  This report is a collection of sources that deal with the questions of how do scientists know, and what could actuaries do regarding climate change, environmental risks, and weather.
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• Climate Sources for Actuaries
  April 2017
  This research will initiate the development of a repository of information regarding existing climate and environmental sustainability research of interest to actuaries.
  
  
• Improving Disaster Financing
  February 2017
  At a November 2016 workshop, “Improving Disaster Financing: Evaluating Policy Interventions in Disaster Insurance Markets,” the SOA sponsored new papers presented by world-renowned scholars on six governmental disaster insurance programs.
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• Actuaries Climate Index
  Updated Quarterly
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• Determining the Impact of Climate Change on Insurance Risk and the Global Community Phase 1: Key Climate Indicators
  November 2012

General Insurance

Risk management reports that are relevant to general insurance matters are available for download below.

• Auto Loss Costs: Dynamic Linear Models with Changepoints
  November 2020
  In this paper a new model is developed to better understand the complicated dynamics in personal auto insurance.
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• Exposure Measures for Pricing and Analyzing the Risks in Cyber Insurance
  June 2020
  This report identifies and makes recommendations regarding possible exposure measures for pricing and analyzing the risks in cyber insurance.
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• Residential Flood Risk in the United States: Quantifying Flood Losses, Mortgage Risk and Sea Level Rise
  May 2020
  This report evaluates the impact and evolution of societal risk management due to projected future changes in frequency, severity, and variety of weather-related catastrophes.
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• Quantification of Cyber Risk for Actuaries
  May 2020
  This study aims to develop a generic model that can be applied by any organization. For the validation of the developed cyber risk analysis method, simulations and sensitivity analysis will be performed.
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• Projecting a Dependent Loss Ratio Under Shifting Parameters
  May 2020
  Reserving and ratemaking calculations are vital to how insurance companies perform financially. In this report, two main theorems are discussed, each addressing prediction of future loss ratio or pure premium and improving upon current practices for how rates and reserves are calculated.
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• Auto Loss Cost Trends 2019 Update
  January 2020
  A series of reports on Auto Loss Costs for 2019 including trends, collision, comprehensive, bodily injury, property damage, and personal injury protections.
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• Predictive Analysis: The Effects of Technology and Weather on Crop Yield
  December 2019
  This research proposes a methodology to isolate crop yield improvement due to technological change and favorable and unfavorable weather.
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• Loss Modeling of Rollover for Autonomous Vehicles
  November 2019
  This research provides methodological tools for an insurer to better understand the potential losses incurred by autonomous vehicles in the context of rollover risk.
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• An Update on the Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
  October 2019
  To help describe current trends and highlight differences between the cars we see on the street today and driverless vehicles, this report relies on three market-related definitions; safe, self-driving and driverless.
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• Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems
  November 2018
  The surface transportation industry is in the early stages of a series of profound changes, stimulated by the development of increasingly sophisticated driving safety and automation technologies.
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• Auto Loss Cost Trends
  September 2018 
  In the latter half of 2013, personal auto insurance carriers began to notice an uptick in property damage liability and collision frequency. This marked the beginning of a new increasing frequency trend bucking over 25 years of falling crash rates. In response, industry partners banded together to analyze these trends. Using publicly available data from the Federal Highway Administration, Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Census Bureau, and other sources, an analysis group is searching for explanatory variables. These materials are an update to the report previously published in January 2018.
  
  
• Incorporation of Flood and Other Catastrophe Model Results into Pricing and Underwriting
  July 2018 
  This research report on the incorporation of flood and other catastrophe model results into pricing and underwriting is prepared by the authors for the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, the Society of Actuaries, and the Casualty Actuarial Society.
  
  
• Premium Distribution and Market Competitiveness Under Rate Regulation
  April 2018
  This research concerns optimal new business written premium mix at the firm and state levels under varying competitive conditions.
  
  
• Auto Loss Cost Trends Report
  January 2018
  This report provides an analytical basis for discussion and understanding for regulators, legislators, and the general public about national trends and state specific factors that may be driving the auto insurance loss costs, which ultimately impact premiums and the consumer.
  
  
• Actuarial Review of Insurer Insolvencies, Future Preventions  
  January 2018
  Sponsored by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA), Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS), and Society of Actuaries (SOA), this study looks at causes of insolvency and decisions made by management, regulators, and policyholders over the life cycle of the insolvency. This study is intended to educate insurance professionals on historical insurer impairments and insolvencies and possible future prevention indicators.
  
  
• Delta Boosting Machine with Application to General Insurance
  March 2017
  This research paper introduces Delta Boosting as a new member of the boosting family.
  
  
• Cybersecurity Insurance: Modeling and Pricing
  March 2017
  This research paper develops a framework for modeling and pricing cybersecurity risk.
  
  
• General Insurance Deductible Ratemaking with Applications to the Local Government Property Insurance Fund
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• Farm-Level Crop Yield Forecasting in the Absence of Farm-Level Data
• November 2016 
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• Hedging with Life and General Insurance Products  
  November 2016 

U.S. Population

The Society of Actuaries (SOA) has sponsored a program of research that utilizes U.S. Population Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to produce studies, tools and articles that may be of interest to its members and the public. See the list below for the publications released by the SOA.

• 2020 Excess Deaths in the U.S. General Population by Age and Sex
  February 2021
  This document describes an effort to measure the deaths in the US population relative to pre-pandemic expectations. The actual deaths used are as reported by the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and we consider several different methods for setting the expectations, adjusting for the estimated mix by age, sex, and time of the year (seasonality).
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• Mortality by Socioeconomic Category in the United States
  January 2021
  Learn about mortality disparities in the U.S.
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• U.S. Population Mortality Observations – Updated with 2019 Experience
  January 2021
  This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality.
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• U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2018
  July 2020
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2018.
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• U.S. Population Mortality by Race
  July 2020
  This report covers historical mortality from 1999-2018 by race as categorized by population data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) WONDER database. Mortality for all deaths and six specific causes of death are considered over this period. Additionally, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced mortality as a whole and this report shows the breakdown of COVID-19 deaths by race.
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• Projections of COVID-19 Hospitalizations and Deaths, Updated April 24, 2020
  April 2020
  Since the outbreak began in January, numerous research groups throughout the world have developed models to forecast the number of deaths that could result from COVID-19. Dr. Thomas McAndrew and Dr. Nicholas Reich of the University of Massachusetts Amherst have, on a weekly basis beginning in mid-February, surveyed experts who are separately engaged in efforts to model the outbreak. This brief looks at these models.
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• US Population Mortality Observations - Updated with 2018 Experience
  March 2020
  This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality.
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• Life Expectancy Comparison
  August 2019
  One-page comparisons of life expectancy at age 65 using various mortality tables. A separate page shows comparisons of life expectancy at age 25.
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• U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2017 
  August 2019           
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2017.
  
  
• U.S. Population Mortality Observations - Preview of 2018 Experience 
  June 2019          
  This report provides early insights into the level of U.S. population mortality in 2018.
  
  
• Mortality and Morbidity Data Sources 
  March 2019          
  This report provides information on other mortality and morbidity data sources to consider. Some of these data sources are rich and complex. This report provides an overview of the data sources’ characteristics and a roadmap to delving into their details.
  
  
• Drivers of U.S. Mortality Improvement Expert Panel Forum Report 
  January 2019          
  This report summarizes a daylong Expert Panel Forum discussion, which included experts from inside and outside the insurance/retirement industry, who were invited to participate in a discussion to provide input about drivers of U.S. mortality improvement for the short and long term.
  
  
• US Population Mortality Observations - Updated with 2017 Experience
  January 2019         
  This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality.
  
  
• U.S. Motor Vehicle Accident Deaths 1999-2016
  November 2018         
  This report examines historical U.S. motor vehicle accident mortality experience by age, gender, region, and other factors.
  
  
• U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2016
  September 2018          
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2016.
  
  
• Overview of the United States Mortality DataBase
  July 2018 
  This report documents progress on a multi-year project initially funded by the United States National Institutes of Health (through grant #R01-AG010245) with additional support from the Research Expanding Boundaries Pool of the Society of Actuaries. The goal of the project is to foster research on geographic variability in survival within the United States by providing access to standardized historical mortality series for the 4 Census Regions, 9 Census Divisions and 50 states plus the District of Columbia.
  
  
• Population Mortality Observations - Preview of 2017 Experience
  June 2018
  This report reviews estimates of 2017 U.S. population mortality experience from the National Center for Health Statistics’ National Vital Statistics System.
  
  
• Population Mortality Observations  - Updated with 2016 Experience
  January 2018
  This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality.
  
  
• Modeling and Management of Longevity Risk
  November 2017
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA), in a joint project with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA), is creating research projects and education materials on Modeling and Management of Longevity Risk.
  
  
• Components of Historical Mortality Improvement
  October 2017
  This report documents the “Components of Historical Mortality Improvement” project commissioned by the Longevity Advisory Group (LAG) of the Society of Actuaries.
  
  
• Seasonal Influenza in the United States 2016‐2017
  September 2017
  Observations and commentary on the 2016‐2017 and recent flu seasons with relation to various mortality and morbidity measures available through the CDC.
  
  
• US Population Mortality Rate Study - Variation by Age Group, Cause of Death and Region from 2000‐2015
  May 2017
  This report covers US regional population mortality experience during the period 2000-2015. The Society of Actuaries pursued the research as part its ongoing longevity and mortality research initiatives. The purpose of the research is to produce an overview of the differences and similarities in mortality by age group, time, cause of death and region (geographic and urban-rural) to better aid in the understanding of future expected mortality rates and the management of public programs and policy.
  
  
• Expanding the Human Mortality Database to include Cause‐of‐Death Information
  February 2017
  The Human Mortality Database is a unique open‐access collection of detailed mortality and population data for 38 countries with complete and reliable vital registration and census data. This report overviews the development and completion of the HMD data series down to a cause of death level for an initial set of eight populations: Canada, Czech Republic, England and Wales, France, Japan, Norway, Sweden, and the United States.
  
  
• Potentially Preventable Deaths in the U.S.
  December 2016