Research Emerging Topics
This page contains emerging research topics in risk management in a variety of areas. As new reports and studies on risk management become available, you’ll find them listed below. Most reports are in PDF format.
Climate
- In this category of risk management studies and reports, you’ll find research that explores how climate risk may affect the finance and insurance industries.
- Actuarial Weather Extremes: Precipitation Analysis Using Extreme Value Theory
March 2023 - This paper sets out to apply the core concepts of Extreme Value Theory to the precipitation history of Lambert Airport in St. Louis, Missouri (STL). In July 2022, 8.6 inches of rain was recorded in one day, breaking the previous record of 5.6 inches. Previously, the Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) reported on this extreme precipitation. The analysis described in this paper can easily be applied to other time series: either a different station or a different weather variable, such as temperature. By following the methodology in the paper and working through the accompanying workbook, any actuary can begin analysis of extreme weather observations.
- Catastrophic Cyber Risk: An Expert Panel Discussion Part 2
March 2023 - With the growing threat of cyber incidents, organizations and governments are rightfully concerned and there is a need to understand and provide greater context around the topic of catastrophic cyber risk, which has implications for insurance companies, reinsurers, regulators, consumers, and society.
- This report is the second output of a series of four multi-disciplinary panel discussions that employs red teaming techniques to gather insights from a diverse set of experts regarding evolving catastrophic cyber risks and how to plan ahead, mitigate, and respond to them.
- Climate Risk Assessment and Scenario Analysis
March 2023
There is value in a framework that allows a smooth transition from a qualitative assessment to a quantitative analysis as entities mature in their understanding of climate risk. In this report, a case study on climate change impact on home prices is used to illustrate a Bayesian network iterative approach to building a model for scenario analysis. - Climate Change and Investments: Making the Process Transparent
February 2023
This report will explore metrics and assessment tools used by insurance companies and asset management firms in the U.S. to measure the climate risk exposures in their investment portfolios and see how they disclose the results. In addition, it will explore how companies may be able to use similar climate risk assessment tools in Asset-Liability Management and Risk Management. - Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Newsletter
January 2023
This newsletter highlights the Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program along with featured research projects, recent news items, authored content recommendations and related research from other organizations. -
January 2023With the growing threat of cyber incidents, organizations and governments are rightfully concerned and there is a need to understand and provide greater context around the topic of catastrophic cyber risk, which has implications for insurance companies, reinsurers, regulators, consumers, and society.Taking a multi-disciplinary, holistic approach to catastrophic cyber risk, an expert panel discussion was conducted featuring a strong and diverse conversation on catastrophic cyber risk. This report sets the scene and frames catastrophic cyber risk and is the first of four expert panel discussions and reports in this series.
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January 2023This report series identifies and examines weather extremes in North America and beyond. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) among others; the reports identify and summarize unusual or extreme single-day or multi-day weather events which are significant in a historical context. The most recent report examines the impact of record rainfall on river and stream discharge levels through California in January 2023 and focuses on historical observations of the Salinas River, and discusses considerations for actuarial modeling and the selection of statistical distributions.
- Actuarial Weather Extremes Series, California Precipitation: December 30-31, 2022
January 2023
This report series identifies and examines weather extremes in North America and beyond. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) among others; the reports identify and summarize unusual or extreme single-day or multi-day weather events which are significant in an historical context. The most recent report covers the extreme precipitation in California in the last days of 2022, views it within an historical context, and discusses considerations for actuarial modeling and distribution fit. - Flood Risk Management and Adaptation Under Sea Level Rise Uncertainty
December 2022
This study presents a comprehensive approach of real option analysis to climate adaptation policies aiming to mitigate flood risk. The framework focuses on pricing catastrophic risk in coastal regions, allowing for economic growth and uncertainty in the mean sea level rise. The framework also provides insights into the optimal investment timing, both for single investment projects and for optimal adaptation pathways, when multiple projects are feasible. - A Practical Guide for Working with Weather Datasets
December 2022
This series of papers is intended to serve as a practical guide for actuaries and researchers who wish to analyze weather datasets. The first paper (released in November 2022) provides an overview of the main types of weather datasets and the second paper (released in December 2022) describes techniques for analyzing large weather datasets using a standard personal computer. Upcoming papers (to be released in 2023) will provide an overview of various weather datasets and will be accompanied by open-source computer programs for analyzing the data. - Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Newsletter
October 2022
This newsletter highlights the Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program along with featured research projects, recent news items, authored content recommendations and related research from other organizations. - The Impact of Disaster Events on Investments - Contagion Channels Perspective
October 2022
The Society of Actuaries’ Committee on Finance Research is pleased to make available a research report covering the extent to which investment sectors have been contagiously affected by major disasters. - Actuarial Weather Extremes Series Hurricane Ian 2022: October 3 Follow-Up
October 2022
This report series identifies and examines weather extremes in North America and beyond. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) among others; the reports identify and summarize unusual or extreme single-day or multi-day weather events which are significant in an historical context. As noted in the SOA Research Institute report published on 9/30/2022, Hurricane Ian caused tornadoes, significant rainfall and flooding, and record-breaking tide levels in Florida. This report provides a more focused, detailed look at the extreme observations and historical significance of some of the observed perils. - A Hydro-EVT Approach to Flood Insurance Pricing
September
The research provides a modeling framework for assessing the inundation risk of properties and their expected flood damages, thereby laying a foundation for flood insurance pricing. The researchers studied over 50 years of claims data from the National Flood Insurance Program with 2.5 million records and identified property characteristics that predict flood damages for inundated properties. The development of a private flood insurance market benefits from insurers’ ability to better understand and price flood risk. This research takes a closer look at flood risk modeling and flood insurance pricing. - Actuarial Weather Extremes Series, Hurricane Ian: September 26-29, 2022
September 2022
This report series identifies and examines weather extremes in North America and beyond. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) among others; the reports identify and summarize unusual or extreme single-day or multi-day weather events which are significant in an historical context. The most recent report covers the tremendous scale of Hurricane Ian as it hit Florida and the geographic range of the perils associated with the hurricane. - Climate, Weather, and Environmental Sources for Actuaries, 2022 Update
September
This report was developed by the CESRC as an update of the report Rob Erhardt prepared in 2016 that compiled a collection of sources that deal with what scientists know and what actuaries could do. Sources have been chosen with practicing actuaries and the public in mind. In the original report, nearly all governmental sources come from the United States. In the update an attempt was made to include sources from actuarial bodies and regulators worldwide. Please let us know if you have a source we did not include as it is anticipated that the SOA will continue to update a list of sources for these topics in the future. - Actuarial Weather Extremes Series, Heavy U.S. Precipitation: July 26-29, 2022
Aug 2022
This report series identifies and examines weather extremes in North America and beyond. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) among others; the reports identify and summarize unusual or extreme single-day or multi-day weather events which are significant in an historical context. The most recent report covers the extreme precipitation event that hit St. Louis, Missouri and Central and Eastern Kentucky. - Actuarial Weather Extremes Series, Southern Europe Heatwave: July 2022
Aug 2022
This report series identifies and examines weather extremes in North America and beyond. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) among others; the reports identify and summarize unusual or extreme single-day or multi-day weather events which are significant in an historical context. The most recent report covers the record-breaking heat wave that has baked several countries across Europe. - Climate Impact on Tick-Borne Illnesses
July 2022
The SOA Research Institute Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Program released a report that explores the shifting geography of Lyme Disease in the U.S. and beyond and some of the potential determinants of its spread. Lyme Disease is a well-known disease particularly in the eastern U.S., and it is also prevalent in other geographies. This report researches the complex relationship between climate variables and the spread of Lyme Disease in the United States. - Climate Risk Analysis for Life and Health Insurance Companies
June 2022
On March 31, 2022, the SOA Research Institute assembled an expert panel to discuss key considerations related to climate risk analysis applied to life and health insurance companies. The panelists were selected to represent a wide and diverse array of opinions, and were encouraged to contribute from their own, individual perspective working in areas such as insurance, reinsurance, state regulation, consultancy, meteorology, and climate finance. A summary of the main discussion points is presented in this report. - TCFD Best Practices
February 2022
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute commissioned a study to understand how insurers are responding to the framework used for climate disclosure practices, attempting to identify current practice and best and emerging practice. Used by firms to ensure they manage climate risk appropriately, the framework from the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) focuses on disclosure of governance, risk management, strategy, and metrics. - Health and Hurricanes, Studying Disparate Health Impact of Extreme Climate Events, 2017-2020
January 2022
In this Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute report, authored by consultants from Milliman, Inc. (Milliman) we aim to study the effects of hurricanes on human health: whether there is a relationship between hurricanes and the observed prevalence of healthcare utilization or certain health conditions among the affected population, whether this relationship can be observed through a healthcare utilization dataset, and whether there is an interaction between this observation and metrics of socioeconomic vulnerability. - Environmental Risk Series
January 2022
This report series explores various aspects of environmental risk. - From 9/11 to COVID-19: The Unthinkables Call for Essays
December 2021
Review the winning essays from the Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA). - Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Inland Flood Risk by Mid Century
November 2021
This report examines how inland flood risk and loss may change across the U.S. in the future because of climate change. The AIR Inland Flood Model for the U.S. and the AIR Hurricane Model for the U.S. were used to evaluate how changes in flooding will impact insurable losses in the future. - Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Wildfire Risk by Mid Century
September 2021
This report provides results from a recently conducted study using the AIR Wildfire Model for the United States and available climate and climate change information to estimate how climate change may influence wildfire losses to U.S. property by mid-century. The climate change conditioned catalogs were used to evaluate climate change impacts (relative change in losses) to the AIR Worldwide US Industry Exposure Database, with all factors other than area burned held constant. - Projected Changes in Insurability and Affordability of Insurance Coverages due to Climate Change
September 2021
The Society of Actuaries Catastrophe/Climate Strategic Research Program engaged Risk & Regulatory Consulting LLC (RRC) to conduct research on the projected changes in insurability and affordability of insurance coverages due to climate change. This report summarizes research results. Information regarding RRC can be found on their website at www.riskreg.com. - Determining the Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Human Health Outcomes: A Case Study on Heat Related Illness Attribution
February 2021
This report is targeted to actuaries that are interested in identifying the adverse human health outcomes resulting from anthropogenic climate change. As the primary focus of actuarial research is to promote human health and minimize the preventable economic burden, this document also provides recommendations to mitigate against excess heat related illness (HRI) due to extreme heat.
- COVID-19 Visualizations of Interest to Actuaries
November 2020
The SOA Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Steering Committee has sponsored these visualizations exploring the correlation between the COVID-19 pandemic and a theme of choice of the individual contributing authors. - Social Discounting - Application to the Risk Management of Climate Change
- September 2020
- A cost-benefit analysis plays a vital role in important social decision-making. The application of discount rates plays a crucial role in the quantitative portion of this analysis, especially when dealing with issues involving costs and benefits over prolonged periods. The objective of this paper is to discuss the factors that affect and should be considered in the development of social discount rates.
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The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD)
August 2020
This paper has been published by the Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Program of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and is intended to be a part of ongoing education for actuaries on the topic of climate risks. -
A Tool for Extracting Subsets of Data from GHCN Daily Dataset
August 2020
This Excel/VBA tool can extract temperature, precipitation and snowfall data from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) daily weather dataset, and run tabulations on the extracted data. - Residential Flood Risk in the United States: Quantifying Flood Losses, Mortgage Risk and Sea Level Rise
May 2020
This report evaluates the impact and evolution of societal risk management due to projected future changes in frequency, severity, and variety of weather-related catastrophes. - Trends in Normalized Weather-Related Property Losses in the United States: 1960–2018
- May 2020
- This report uses the Spatial Hazards Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS) to examine trends in normalized weather-related property losses from 1960 to the present. “Normalized” losses reflect an adjustment to account for the growth of exposure between the year of each loss and 2018. Exposure growth was estimated using county-level census data on housing units and state-level data on housing prices.
- International Catastrophe Pooling for Extreme Weather
October 2019
This research studies catastrophe insurance pools covering losses caused by extreme weather events. - 2018 Environmental Sustainability Essays
- May 2019
- The Society of Actuaries’ (SOA) Climate & Environmental Sustainability Research Committee is pleased to present this essay collection, which focuses on unknown knowns: where we have data but the future looks different from the past.
- Modeling, Measuring, and Pricing the Flood Risk
January 2019
This research will educate the actuarial community about the various shades of the flood risk, as well as about the state of the art in quantitative flood risk modeling. - Incorporation of Flood and Other Catastrophe Model Results into Pricing and Underwriting
July 2018
This research report on the incorporation of flood and other catastrophe model results into pricing and underwriting is prepared by the authors for the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, the Society of Actuaries, and the Casualty Actuarial Society. - 2017 Environmental Sustainability Essays
July 2018
The Society of Actuaries’ (SOA) Climate & Environmental Sustainability Research Committee is pleased to present this essay collection, which shows how actuaries incorporate the financial risks of environmental sustainability into their work for their employers or clients. - How Do They Know and What Could We Do? The Science of 21st Century Climate Projections and Opportunities for Actuaries
May 2018
This white paper provides actuaries with the necessary background and foundational scientific knowledge to understand global climate change and climate model projections for the 21st century. -
Predictive Modeling of Surface Temperature Extremes over North America with Actuarial Applications in View
April 2018
This project obtains ensemble simulations of surface atmospheric temperature over North America. - Managing Climate and Carbon Risk in Investment Portfolios
February 2018
This report focuses on analyzing and managing climate change and carbon risk in the equity investment portfolios of insurance company and pension fund assets. - Climate, Weather, and Environmental Sources for Actuaries
April 2017
This report is a collection of sources that deal with the questions of how do scientists know, and what could actuaries do regarding climate change, environmental risks, and weather. - Climate Sources for Actuaries
April 2017
This research will initiate the development of a repository of information regarding existing climate and environmental sustainability research of interest to actuaries. - Improving Disaster Financing
February 2017
At a November 2016 workshop, “Improving Disaster Financing: Evaluating Policy Interventions in Disaster Insurance Markets,” the SOA sponsored new papers presented by world-renowned scholars on six governmental disaster insurance programs. - Actuaries Climate Index
Updated Quarterly - Determining the Impact of Climate Change on Insurance Risk and the Global Community Phase 1: Key Climate Indicators
November 2012
U.S. Population
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute has sponsored a program of research that utilizes U.S. Population Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to produce studies, tools and articles that may be of interest to its members and the public. See the list below for the publications released by the SOA Research Institute.
- U.S. Population Mortality Observations – Updated with 2021 Experience
February 2023
This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. The SOA relied upon data furnished by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Observations are based on the CDC’s recent release of 2021 mortality experience, along with prior mortality experience data from 1999 through 2020. - 2021 Provisional U.S. Population Mortality Key Observations
October 2022
In this report, we consider high-level results from provisional mortality data released from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for 2021, including looking at changes by sex and age group. There are multiple measures for mortality that can be used in investigating trends. In this paper, we will be using crude death rates, age-adjusted death rates, and period life expectancy. - 2020-2021 Excess Deaths in the U.S. General Population by Age and Sex
August 2022
This is an update of a report published originally in June 2021 comparing total U.S. population mortality to baseline expectations by age and sex. The report now includes U.S. population numbers through August 17, 2022, so the years 2020 and 2021 are now mostly complete. - U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2020
July 2022
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2020. - U.S. Population Mortality Observations – Updated with 2020 Experience
January 2022
This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. The SOA relied upon data furnished by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Observations are based on the CDC’s recent release of 2020 mortality experience, along with prior mortality experience data from 1999 through 2019. - Life Expectancy Comparison
October 2021
A simple comparison of life expectancies for persons age 65 or age 25 in 2021 using various mortality tables. Also look at simple comparisons of probabilities in 2021 of living to age 100 for persons of various ages. - Analysis of Historical U.S. Population Mortality
September
The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committees is pleased to present a new report examining mortality improvement drivers in the U.S. for the period 1959-2016. The study identifies significant U.S. mortality improvement/deterioration trends since 1959 including, but not limited to, those described in the SOA report, Components of Historical Mortality Improvement, using cause-of-death and other relevant data sources to quantify the likely degree of causality. - U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2019
August 2021
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2019. - Interstate Variations in Mortality in the United States, 1959-2018
The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committees is pleased to present a new report examining mortality differentials by state. Using recently updated data from the United States Mortality Database, this report presents an overview of historical mortality trends in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia for the period 1959-2018. - U.S. Population Mortality Observations, Preview of 2020 Experience
June 2021
The COVID-19 (COVID) pandemic has increased the demand for data and analysis on the impact of COVID on U.S. population mortality. This report is based on 2020 provisional death data released by the CDC. An updated June 2021 report has been added, based on additional 2020 cause of death data from the CDC. - 2020 Excess Deaths in the U.S. General Population by Age and Sex, Updated May 2021
May 2021
This document describes an effort to measure the deaths in the US population relative to pre-pandemic expectations. The actual deaths used are as reported by the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and we consider several different methods for setting the expectations, adjusting for the estimated mix by age, sex, and time of the year (seasonality). - Mortality by Socioeconomic Category in the United States
January 2021
Learn about mortality disparities in the U.S. - U.S. Population Mortality Observations – Updated with 2019 Experience
January 2021
This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. - U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2018
July 2020
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2018. - U.S. Population Mortality by Race
July 2020
This report covers historical mortality from 1999-2018 by race as categorized by population data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) WONDER database. Mortality for all deaths and six specific causes of death are considered over this period. Additionally, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced mortality as a whole and this report shows the breakdown of COVID-19 deaths by race. - Projections of COVID-19 Hospitalizations and Deaths, Updated April 24, 2020
April 2020
Since the outbreak began in January, numerous research groups throughout the world have developed models to forecast the number of deaths that could result from COVID-19. Dr. Thomas McAndrew and Dr. Nicholas Reich of the University of Massachusetts Amherst have, on a weekly basis beginning in mid-February, surveyed experts who are separately engaged in efforts to model the outbreak. This brief looks at these models. - US Population Mortality Observations - Updated with 2018 Experience
March 2020
This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. - U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2017
August 2019
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2017. - U.S. Population Mortality Observations - Preview of 2018 Experience
June 2019
This report provides early insights into the level of U.S. population mortality in 2018. - Mortality and Morbidity Data Sources
March 2019
This report provides information on other mortality and morbidity data sources to consider. Some of these data sources are rich and complex. This report provides an overview of the data sources’ characteristics and a roadmap to delving into their details. - Drivers of U.S. Mortality Improvement Expert Panel Forum Report
January 2019
This report summarizes a daylong Expert Panel Forum discussion, which included experts from inside and outside the insurance/retirement industry, who were invited to participate in a discussion to provide input about drivers of U.S. mortality improvement for the short and long term. - US Population Mortality Observations - Updated with 2017 Experience
January 2019
This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. - U.S. Motor Vehicle Accident Deaths 1999-2016
November 2018
This report examines historical U.S. motor vehicle accident mortality experience by age, gender, region, and other factors. - U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2016
September 2018
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2016. - Overview of the United States Mortality DataBase
July 2018
This report documents progress on a multi-year project initially funded by the United States National Institutes of Health (through grant #R01-AG010245) with additional support from the Research Expanding Boundaries Pool of the Society of Actuaries. The goal of the project is to foster research on geographic variability in survival within the United States by providing access to standardized historical mortality series for the 4 Census Regions, 9 Census Divisions and 50 states plus the District of Columbia. - Population Mortality Observations - Preview of 2017 Experience
June 2018
This report reviews estimates of 2017 U.S. population mortality experience from the National Center for Health Statistics’ National Vital Statistics System. - Population Mortality Observations - Updated with 2016 Experience
January 2018
This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. - Modeling and Management of Longevity Risk
November 2017
The Society of Actuaries (SOA), in a joint project with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA), is creating research projects and education materials on Modeling and Management of Longevity Risk. - Components of Historical Mortality Improvement
October 2017
This report documents the “Components of Historical Mortality Improvement” project commissioned by the Longevity Advisory Group (LAG) of the Society of Actuaries. - Seasonal Influenza in the United States 2016‐2017
September 2017
Observations and commentary on the 2016‐2017 and recent flu seasons with relation to various mortality and morbidity measures available through the CDC. - US Population Mortality Rate Study - Variation by Age Group, Cause of Death and Region from 2000‐2015
May 2017
This report covers US regional population mortality experience during the period 2000-2015. The Society of Actuaries pursued the research as part its ongoing longevity and mortality research initiatives. The purpose of the research is to produce an overview of the differences and similarities in mortality by age group, time, cause of death and region (geographic and urban-rural) to better aid in the understanding of future expected mortality rates and the management of public programs and policy. - Expanding the Human Mortality Database to include Cause‐of‐Death Information
February 2017
The Human Mortality Database is a unique open‐access collection of detailed mortality and population data for 38 countries with complete and reliable vital registration and census data. This report overviews the development and completion of the HMD data series down to a cause of death level for an initial set of eight populations: Canada, Czech Republic, England and Wales, France, Japan, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. - Potentially Preventable Deaths in the U.S.
December 2016