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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Wildfire Risk by Mid Century


Peter Sousounis, PhD
AIR Worldwide

Alastair Clarke, PhD
AIR Worldwide

Doug Fullam
AIR Worldwide


This report provides results from a recently conducted study using the AIR Wildfire Model for the United States and available climate and climate change information to estimate how climate change may influence wildfire losses to U.S. property by mid-century. The climate change conditioned catalogs were used to evaluate climate change impacts (relative change in losses) to the AIR Worldwide US Industry Exposure Database, with all factors other than area burned held constant.


Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Wildfire Risk by Mid Century


The researchers wish to extend their gratitude to the POG members and SOA members for their guidance throughout the project and for their careful review of this report.

Project Oversight Group members:

Joan Barrett, FSA, MAAA; Consultant, Axene Health Partners
Laura Bass, FSA, MAAA;
Sam Gutterman, FSA, MAAA, FCAS, FCA, HONFIA, CERA; Director, PricewaterhouseCoopers
Steve Kolk, ACAS, MAAA; Climate Data Scientist, Kolkulations LLC
Julie Meadows, FSA, MAAA, CERA; Associate Director, Actuarial Services at UnitedHealth Group
Shone Mousseiri, ASA, ACIA, PRM, GradStat; Analyst, Manulife
Brad Paulis, ASA, MAAA, FCA; Partner, Continuing Care Actuaries
Didier Serre, FSA; Head of Climate Risk Modeling and Research; Clearsum
Manyu Wong, FSA, CERA; Business Steering Specialist, Vice President, Swiss Re
Cathy (Cici) Zhang, FSA, MAAA; Consulting Actuary, Milliman

At the Society of Actuaries:

Rob Montgomery, ASA, MAAA; Independent Consultant, Project Manager
Erika Schulty, Research Associate, Society of Actuaries

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