Announcement: SOA releases October 2019 Exam STAM passing candidate numbers.

Investment Fallacies

The Investment Section is pleased to release our essay e-book, “Investment Fallacies.” This e-book contains 16 topical essays that express the opinions and thoughts of a number of authors on the subject.

Download the complete essay e-Book


Future Equity Returns
By Eric Janecek


The Fallacy of Independence
By Richard Joss


The Fable of the Storyteller and the Market
By Steven Scoles


Extended Periods of Robust Macroeconomic Growth are Healthy for Investing
By Paul Conlin


Mathematical Modelling of Social Phenomena
By Nicholas John Macleod


A Real-world Approach to Value at Risk
By Nicholas John Macleod


Bitcoin Fallacies
By Larry Zhao


Gambler’s Fallacy: Probability of Reversion
By Kailan Shang


Active Management Overall Performs Different than Passive Management
By Evan Inglis


The Best Model Doesn’t Win
By Max J. Rudolph


The Myth of Time Diversification
By Rowland Davis


Simulation of Long-Term Stock Returns: Fat-Tails and Mean Reversion
By Rowland Davis


The “Dollar Bill” Fallacy
By Gary Thomas


The Fallacy of the Fed Model
By David Cantor, Adam Butler and Kunal Rajani


The Misconceptions of Retirement Risks
By Dimitry Mindlin


On the Validity of Common Portfolio Return Assumptions
By Dimitry Mindlin