Potential Impact of Pandemic Influenza on the U.S. Life Insurance Industry

Research Projects – Life Insurance


Sponsored by the Committee on Life Insurance Research and the Risk Management Section's Research Team, Jim Toole of MBA Actuaries evaluates the financial effects of different flu pandemic scenarios on the U.S. Life Insurance industry. In addition to the research report, he has developed an accompanying spreadsheet tool for individual insurers to better understand the associated financial risks of a flu pandemic.

During this study, the Project Oversight Group conducted two Delphi studies. One study examined how excess insured mortality as a result of a flu pandemic might differ from that of the general population. The second study examined the potential economic effects of a flu pandemic. Results are presented in the following reports.


Potential Impact of Pandemic Influenza on the U.S. Life Insurance Industry Report

Pandemic Model Tool Documentation

Pandemic Model Tool

Study of the Effect of a Flu Pandemic on Economic Values Using the Delphi Method

Study of the Effect of a Flu Pandemic on Insured Mortality Using the Delphi Method

Thank You

The SOA would like to thank the following members of the Project Oversight Group for their valuable contribution to this project:

  • Tom Edwalds, POG Chair
  • Scott Cochran
  • Dr. Bob Gleeson
  • Max Rudolph
  • Bill Sayre
  • Jan Schuh, SOA staff
  • Ronora Stryker, SOA staff

Questions Or Comments?

If you have comments or questions, please send an email to research@soa.org.

Disclaimer for Software Posted on Website

Important: The Pandemic Model Tool ("Software") posted on this site is the property of the Society of Actuaries ("SOA") and is protected under U.S. and international copyright laws. It was created for the SOA by Jim Toole.

The Software has been developed for the benefit of actuaries FOR EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY, although others may find it useful. SOA makes the Software available to individual users for their personal use on a non-exclusive basis. No commercial use, reproduction or distribution is permitted whatsoever.

The Software currently posted on this site is a beta version. SOA and the authors make no warranty, guarantee, or representation, either expressed or implied, regarding the Software, including its quality, accuracy, reliability, or suitability, and HEREBY DISCLAIM ANY WARRANTY REGARDING THE SOFTWARE'S MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE. SOA and the authors make no warranty that the Software is free from errors, defects, worms, viruses or other elements or codes that manifest contaminating or destructive properties. In no event shall SOA or the authors be liable for any damages (including any lost profits, lost savings, or direct, indirect, incidental, consequential or other damages) in connection with or resulting from the use, misuse, reliance on, or performance of any aspect of the Software including any instructions or documentation accompanying the Software. SOA and the authors make no representation or warranty of non-infringement of proprietary rights of others with respect to the Software. The entire risk as to the uses, outputs, analyses, results and performance of the Software is assumed by the user. This Disclaimer applies regardless of whether the Software is used alone or with other software.