Accuracy of Claims-Based Risk Scoring Models

The Society of Actuaries is pleased to make available research material that presents the results of a study comparing health risk scoring models. The study builds on prior SOA studies with a similar objective. The material was authored by Geof Hileman and Spenser Steele.

If you have comments or questions, please contact Steve Siegel, Research Actuary at

As of 10/28/16, the report was updated to reflect a change in results for the CRG model in figures 4.2.3 and 4.2.4.


Accuracy of Claims-Based Risk Scoring Models

Note: The Society of Actuaries does not endorse, explicitly or implicitly for any purposes, software packages evaluated in the study.

Thank You

The SOA would like to thank the following members of the project oversight group for their review and support of the project:

Ian Duncan, Chair
Brandon Barber
Christopher Coulter
Tina Liu
Bill O’Brien
Dan Pribe
Rebecca Owen, SOA Health Research Actuary
Steve Siegel, SOA Research Actuary
Barbara Scott, SOA Research Administrator

Thanks to Casey Kangas of Kennell & Associates and Randall Brown of Mathematica Policy Research for additional review of the material.