2020 Excess Deaths in the U.S. General Population by Age and Sex (Updated May 2021)
Rick Leavitt, ASA, MAAA
These reports describe an effort to measure the deaths in the US population relative to pre-pandemic expectations. The actual deaths used are as reported by the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and we consider several different methods for setting the expectations, adjusting for the estimated mix by age, sex, and time of the year (seasonality). The first report below is an update to the original report published in February, 2021.
The author acknowledges the Society of Actuaries for supporting this work, and the peer reviewers for providing feedback. The author also acknowledges the support of his employer, Guy Carpenter, for the time and encouragement to pursue this analysis.
The following people provided support from the Society of Actuaries:
Cynthia S. MacDonald, FSA, MAAA; Patrick Nolan, FSA, MAAA; Dale Hall FSA, MAAA
The following people provided review and comments on the analysis and report:
Marianne Purushotham, FSA, MAAA; Tim Morant, FSA, MAAA; Derek Kueker, FSA, MAAA; Edward Hui, FSA, MAAA
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