2020-2021 Excess Deaths in the U.S. General Population by Age and Sex

Author

Rick Leavitt, ASA, MAAA
Managing Director, Consulting Actuary
Guy Carpenter

Description

This is an update of a report published originally in June 2021 comparing total U.S. population mortality to baseline expectations by age and sex. The report now includes U.S. population numbers through August 17, 2022, so the years 2020 and 2021 are now mostly complete.

This Society of Actuaries Research Institute report regarding 2020-2021 excess deaths in the U.S. general population compares aggregate mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic to pre-pandemic expectations and does not address or consider vaccine status. The research does not validate any claims made that suggest a causal relationship between COVID-19 vaccines and mortality. Any claims implying such a relationship are a misrepresentation of the data presented in the report and are not reflective of the SOA Research Institute's views.

Report

2020-2021 Excess Deaths in the U.S. General Population by Age and Sex

Video

Acknowledgments

I acknowledge the Society of Actuaries for supporting this work, and to the peer reviewers for providing feedback. I also acknowledge the support of my employer, Guy Carpenter, for the time and encouragement to pursue this analysis.

The following people provided support from the Society of Actuaries:
Kathryn J. Eubank, FSA, MAAA
R. Dale Hall, FSA, MAAA, CERA
Cynthia S. MacDonald, FSA, MAAA
Patrick D. Nolan, FSA, MAAA

The following people provided review and comments on the analysis and report:
Edward Hui, FSA, MAAA, CFA
Derek M. Kueker, FSA
Timothy D. Morant, FSA, MAAA
Marianne C. Purushotham, FSA, MAAA

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If you have comments or questions, please send an email to research@soa.org.