Mortality Improvement Trends, Independent Analysis on Socioeconomic and Other Drivers

Authors

Mark Spong, FSA, CERA, MAAA
Senior Manager
Oliver Wyman

Lisa Grieco
Consultant
Oliver Wyman

Description

Using results from a literature review and data from the U.S. Census Bureau that spans 1985-2015, the authors analyzed mortality improvement patterns across key variables and causes of death. Results of the research quantify differences in mortality improvement between key socioeconomic groups and demonstrates how they change over time.

Instructions for exploring the results in more detail (or recreating the report figures) can be found in Appendix F.

Materials

Mortality Improvement Trends, Independent Analysis on Socioeconomic and Other Drivers
Appendix F-Parameters and results

Acknowledgments

The authors’ deepest gratitude goes to those without whose efforts this project could not have come to fruition: the volunteers who generously shared their wisdom, insights, advice, guidance, and arm’s-length review of this study prior to publication. Any opinions expressed may not reflect their opinions nor those of their employers. Any errors belong to the authors alone.

Project Oversight Group members:
Yana Shergina, Co-Chair, FSA, FCIA
Cynthia Edwalds, Co-Chair, FSA, ACAS, MAAA
Blaine Barham, ASA, FCA, MAAA
Christine Chui, FSA, CERA, FCIA
Tom Farmer, FSA, CERA, MAAA
Jim Filmore, FSA, MAAA
Clark Himmelberger, FSA, MAAA
Kyle McCarthy, FSA, MAAA
Maggie (Jiani) Ma, FSA, FCIA
Larry Stern, FSA, MAAA
Susan Willeat, FSA, MAAA
Dennis Yang, FSA
Pei Zi Zhang, FSA, ACIA, MAAA

At the Society of Actuaries Research Institute:
Jan Schuh, Senior Research Administrator
Ronora Stryker, ASA, MAAA, Senior Practice Research Actuary

At the University of Connecticut School of Medicine:
Jennifer Ozimek, MD, Director of Academic Educational Affairs, Assistant Professor of Medicine

At the U.S. Census Bureau:
Jahn Hakes, Ph.D., Statistician at the Mortality Research Group (MDAC and NLMS), Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau

Note: Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. All results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed. The statistical summaries reported in this document have been cleared by the Census Bureau's Disclosure Review Board release authorization numbers CBDRB-FY22-CES004-012, CBDRB-FY22-CES004-014, CBDRB-FY22-CES004-015, CBDRB-FY22-CES004-016, CBDRB-FY22-CES004-037, and CBDRB-FY22-CES004-038.

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