Description: Renal disease is a very heterogenous medical condition whose end state is dialysis, a recurring cost intensive medical condition. Dialysis cost is one of the major medical cost drivers in USA. Insufficient and improper care management in the early stages of CKD (chronic kidney disease) leads to early incidence of end stage renal disease (ESRD) among CKD patients which not only leads to high medical costs, but also reflects poor health quality.

Description: Cover a variety of topics centered around the unsupervised learning technique called 'clustering'. The presenters will take you through a wide array of topics that range from 'What is Clustering?' to 'How can I use this technique to solve problems I didn't even know existed?' In the health care industry, everyone is looking for an edge in reducing total spend-cluster analysis finds the unambiguous in an ambiguous framework of results.

Description: Hear about some applications using quantile regression-derived individual and group claim distributions and how they may be used in various traditional health care modeling situations. The session will not focus on the technical use of quantile regression to obtain estimates of claim distributions, but more so is intended to focus on the uses of the distributions in actuarial modeling and the additive framework in assessing claims distributions. Presenters will show how actuaries can better assess risks by focusing on the individual- and group-specific claims distributions as opposed to traditional point-estimate-centric models.

Description: Pandemic modeling and its impact on the insurance and reinsurance business have been the subject of scrutiny during the COVID-19 pandemic. As the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared its end as a global health emergency, the focus of insurers and reinsurers turns to the possibility of future pandemics. Key to considering possible future pandemics is assessing what is needed to model pandemic risks. Our presentation will focus on providing you with the following: - The main principles around creating a well-established pandemic risk modeling framework, what they are and how you should build them into your model (As a reinsurer, this is core to our business, and we have unique global insights into performing it.) - A review of pandemic risk modeling strategies as well as an understanding of the inherent uncertainties of pandemic events - Lessons learned from COVID-19 and how we can apply them in assessing the possibility of future pandemics - An understanding of the link between future pandemic risk and the capital requirements

Description: Model runtime is a common challenge for actuaries in the life and annuity space. In particular, applications such as pricing and forecasting may require the use of nested-stochastic calculations, which may require extensive computing resources or use of rough approximations. There are also other areas where runtime may be a challenge, such as projecting certain reserves or layering solving algorithms within actuarial calculations. Recently, runtime challenges have been exacerbated by the development of increasingly complex insurance products and changes in reporting frameworks, such as IFRS 17, LDTI, PBR, and Solvency II. Many approaches have been explored by actuaries in the past to address model runtime challenges. To further this research, the SOA has recently published the paper Predictive Analytics and Machine Learning - Practical Applications for Actuarial Modeling. The authors of the paper will share their insights on innovative techniques using the implementation of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AIML). Come examine an introduction into AIML, review how AIML can be used to circumvent nested stochastic and other runtime challenges, explore case studies, review how costs and benefits can be measured and discuss model risk management considerations. Key learning objectives include: - Understanding the fundamental concepts of AIM - Understanding applications of AIML for actuarial modeling - Learning about the costs and benefits - Learning how AIML can be applied in practice to improve model runtime

Description: Almost half of recent FDA approvals have been for orphan drugs. This trend is expected to continue in 2023. Orphan drugs are priced more than 30 times higher than non-orphan drugs, therefore their cost burden in aggregate has the potential to overwhelm the budgets of payers, especially that of smaller health plans. Hear how the cost impact analysis for smaller health plans require different considerations than for a larger health plan when modeling the impact of rare diseases.

Description: Learn how modernization of data, models, and technology are influencing workflows. This webcast will address how workflows are changing in response to new regulatory requirements and the impacts the changes have on modeling and end-to-end future state operating models. Industry leading actuaries will discuss: How team collaboration can increase quality and speed of reporting to internal and external stakeholders How to strengthen controls and compliance frameworks across finance and actuarial departments How to modernize actuarial input/output for strategic analysis and insights How to attract and retain top talent by improving opportunities for actuaries There will also be dedicated time to ask questions of those who have made the transition.

Description: Can you answer the question, 'What are the chances we will lose more than $1 million?' without saying, 'It depends'? If you miss a projection, can you estimate the chances that the miss was due to random variation versus an incorrect projection? Listen in as presenters demonstrate how to answer these questions and others using total risk analysis. Total risk analysis includes quantifying both the random variation risk and the projection risk associated with actuarial functions like pricing and reserving. After attending this session, you will be able to describe total risk analysis and to apply to many health actuarial functions.

Description: "A crucial importance in forecasting is to be able to distinguish cases when temporary slowdowns in health care utilization are followed by a “rebound” period of higher utilization. Come explore an analysis of a new mathematical model describing the return-of-care process. By means of simulation and case studies using the R programming language, the relationship between the visibility of these effects and the endogenous variance of the utilization time series is explored. After attending this session, you will be able to: Describe the parameters and mathematical form of the model Apply the model to real-world utilization data"

Description: Artificial intelligence (AI) models have become increasingly popular in various industries, including finance. Such models can help lenders assess the risk of loan applicants, identify potential defaults and make better decisions about granting credit. However, the complexity of many machine-learning and, particularly, deep-learning models makes it difficult to understand how they arrive at their decisions. This lack of interpretability can be a significant problem in the legal and ethical realms, as it hinders transparency and accountability. Join us to learn interpretability techniques that are essential to address the challenges of using complex AI models in credit risk modeling. These techniques aim to provide a better understanding of how an AI model arrived at a particular decision or prediction. Techniques include surrogate models, which aim to provide a simpler model that approximates the behavior of the original model, and decision trees, which show the decision-making process in a more transparent way. However, applying interpretability techniques to AI models can be a challenging task. For example, some techniques can reduce the performance of the model, which can be unacceptable in applications where high accuracy is critical. Additionally, some techniques may only be effective for certain types of models or datasets, which limits their applicability. Despite these challenges, interpretability techniques are becoming increasingly important in the field of credit risk modeling. Financial regulators have recognized the importance of interpretability, and are starting to require financial institutions to use models that can be explained and validated. In addition, interpretability techniques can be used to improve the performance of credit risk models. By understanding how a model makes decisions, it is possible to identify areas where the model can be improved or where additional data may be needed.