Description: Accurate forecasts of future health care expenditures for cohorts of elderly individuals can be especially difficult. Current techniques use average per capita costs, based on local experience, adjusted for the cohort's age, sex, institutionalization, and welfare status distribution. This paper presents a method to adjust such per capita cost estimates to reflect more accurately the likely health status of a particular cohort. The adjustment uses the cause-of-mortality profile in the local population, which is a readily available tabulation known to be highly correlated with a major proportion of total medical care expenditures for people beyond age 65. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1984, Vol. 36.

Description: This actuarial memorandum represents the first, formal actuarial opinion regarding the reasonableness of the premium estimates the Clinton Administration presented with its proposed Health Security Act. The memorandum presents the assumptions and methods used to develop an average 1994 premium estimate for the standard benefit package.

Description: Research report measuring the annual frequency of medical errors in the United States and the total measurable cost to the United States economy of these errors.

Description: This dissertation by Tia Sawhney will help you understand this issue and start measuring it, or start promoting equitable public policy.

Description: This paper provides an overview of the employee benefit package, provides data and discusses issues with regard to cost variation, and shows how this data can be combined to provide an understanding of the variation for different employee benefit packages.

Description: This paper reviews the recently published Canadian literature on changing Canadian demographic profiles and highlights the actuarial aspects of the information provided therein. Discussions of this paper are included.

Description: This is Appendix B to the research report measuring the annual frequency of medical errors in the United States and the total measurable cost to the United States economy of these errors. See the SOA web site research section for the full report.

Description: Attempts to Quantify Potential Impact of Pandemic Influenza on the U.S. Life Insurance Industry

Description: Research report sponsored by SOA to model and compare projected costs of different proposals for a Medicare prescription drug coverage plan. 3 types of costs are studied: net benefit cost estimates per member per month, continuance table data, and projected annual costs to the government over 10 years for two selected plan designs.

Description: Study of the Effect of a Flu Pandemic on Economic Values Using the Delphi Method