Description: From the Editor: This issue of Long-Term Care News attempts to address how LTC insurers manage investment risk and morbidity misestimation risks.

Description: In this article, the authors explore how the recession has impacted new member enrollment in the various state health care programs and the resulting impact on trend.

Description: The Society of Actuaries' Long Term Care experience database is mined for evidence of improvement in insured population incidence rates.

Description: Second article in a series on how to use predictive analytics to improve the development of long-term care projection assumptions.

Description: Panel discussion, by a physician and an actuary, about the historical forces behind various trends in organ transplant experience data.

Description: First article in a series that walks through the progression from developing LTC assumptions using traditional methods to doing so using predictive analytics.

Description: This is the abstract for the paper, The Cost and Benefits of Treating Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus as a Chronic Condition by Robert D. Lieberthal.

Description: This is a final report to estimate the total economic cost of obesity. This study looks at the economic costs of obesity caused by increased need for medical care, and loss of economic productivity resulting from excess mortality and disability. The Society of Actuaries breaks out the economic cost of overweight versus obesity for the U.S. and for Canada.

Description: Abstract: The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically worldwide over the last several decades, although stabilizing recently in the United States. Studies have found the effects on mortality to be inconsistent and controversial because of methodological differences and the complexity of the relationship between obesity and mortality. This paper discusses this relationship and sheds light on the likely effects of this epidemic. Issues associated with the so-called obesity-mortality paradox, where mortality experience is lower for those individuals who are overweight and in some who are obese compared with the mortality of those in the normal weight category, are examined. Although certain recently reported studies of the relationship between mortality and obesity indicate that obesity is related to a reduced percent of additional mortality, this may in part be due to the shorter average time that those currently obese have been exposed to their condition. Nevertheless, the amount of health care costs and rates of disability associated with being obese are significant, contributing to the increase in overall health care costs as they become more numerous and age. Although obesity is being addressed with a great deal of activity and publicity, they will continue to prove challenging for individuals and society to manage and overcome.

Description: The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically worldwide over the last several decades, although stabilizing recently in the United States. Studies have found the effects on mortality to be inconsistent and controversial because of methodological differences and the complexity of the relationship between obesity and mortality. This paper discusses this relationship and sheds light on the likely effects of this epidemic. Issues associated with the so-called obesity-mortality paradox, where mortality experience is lower for those individuals who are overweight and in some who are obese compared with the mortality of those in the normal weight category, are examined. Although certain recently reported studies of the relationship between mortality and obesity indicate that obesity is related to a reduced percent of additional mortality, this may in part be due to the shorter average time that those currently obese have been exposed to their condition. Nevertheless, the amount of health care costs and rates of disability associated with being obese are significant, contributing to the increase in overall health care costs as they become more numerous and age. Although obesity is being addressed with a great deal of activity and publicity, they will continue to prove challenging for individuals and society to manage and overcome.