Description: This study examines and describes parameter uncertainty. The paper provides structures to incorporate parameter uncertainty in quantifying risk.

Description: Results of the PBITT Working Group annual Variable Annuity Survey.

Description: This research report studies the social media response to three extreme tornado outbreaks: May 22, 2011 in Joplin, MO, November 17, 2013 in Washington, IL and April 9, 2015 in Rochelle, IL. It uses Twitter data with a 14‐day period for each tornado event with a focus on a 24‐hour period surrounding the event. It starts with an overview of the data followed by analysis of geolocation, insurance related user influence, social network, and sentiment.

Description: This research project examines operational risk management practices and assess the viability of ORM as a formal discipline. A key goal of this initiative has been to determine whether the management of operational risk is feasible, and, if so, what issues need to be addressed in order to effectively implement ORM within a broader ERM context.

Description: Research report describing the results of an Emerging Risks Survey conducted in 2016. The report, the tenth in a series, includes comparisons to the previous surveys.

Description: In this paper we give new general criteria for the weak convergence of one-dimensional distributions of generalized risk processes and describe the class of possible limit laws under an infinite growth of stochastic portfolio size and stochastic intensity of insurance payment.

Description: The monograph walks the reader through the hindsight, insight and foresight building process while discussing theoretical and practical issues supporting the building of valid forecasts with provenance for each of these schema examples. That is, the analyst can document the iterative ‘profiling change processes’ mindscape and landscape elements by which and through which the successful forecast is built. This kind of forecast construction ameliorates the ‘black box’ problem of generating pattern output without an understanding of the pattern’s creation or contextual meaning that is often seen when using other methods, particularly machine learning and artificial intelligence. This issue is discussed, referencing appropriate thought leaders.

Description: The Casualty Actuarial Society, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, and the Society of Actuaries Research Institute are pleased to make available results from the 2021 Emerging Risks Survey, the fifteenth in the series. Conducted by Max J. Rudolph of Rudolph Financial Consulting LLC, the survey incorporated a set of Emerging Risks defined by the World Economic Forum as the basis for several of the questions. The survey also included questions related to current risk management topics.

Description: Enterprise risk management (ERM) is an orderly or guided conduct of an enterprise to deal with risks. For insurers, ERM requires full support and commitment of the senior management. ERM in the U.S. and Canada has evolved over the years into a complex ecosystem.

Description: Early detection and assessment of insurer’s insolvency risk are critically important to regulators, insurers, policyholders, and investors for fiduciary assessment of insurer’s financial stability and for protection of potential financial loss associated with insurer’s insolvency. This proposed study aims to develop a market-based insolvency prediction model to detect financially distressed insurers at an early stage with the information content of higher moments from the market.