Description: The article discovers that mortality is higher for females than for males at higher ages, and suggests "stress" as the explanation. It then discusses mental illness research, including recovery therefrom.

Description: For the purposes of risk management and stress testing, we characterize a spectrum of plausible extreme events, that we dub Grey Swans, by introducing a probabilistic method involving the concentration of measure phenomenon. As a result, stress tests can be triaged according to severity, probability and, now, information-based plausibility.

Description: Recently researchers, practitioners, and regulators had intense debates about how to treat the data collection threshold in operational risk modeling. There are several approaches under consideration—the empirical approach, the “naive” approach, the shifted approach, and the truncated approach—for fitting the loss severity distribution. Since each approach is based on a different set of assumptions, different probability models emerge. Thus, model uncertainty arises. When possible we investigate such model uncertainty analytically, otherwise we use Monte Carlo simulations. For specific parametric examples we consider exponential and Lomax distributions which are special cases of the generalized Pareto family. Our primary goal is to quantify the effect of model uncertainty on risk measurements. This is accomplished by evaluating the probability of each approach producing conservative capital allocations based on the value-at-risk measure. These explorations are further illustrated using a real data set for legal losses in a business unit (Cruz, 2002).

Description: This article analyzes mortality trajectories of supercentenarians (persons living 110+ years) and tests hypothesis about flat mortality at these extreme ages.

Description: This article analyzes mortality trajectories of supercentenarians (persons living 110+ years) and tests hypothesis about flat mortality at these extreme ages.

Description: Retirement readiness planning is difficult because the value of a person's future Social Security benefits is uncertain, given the need for reform.

Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: Describes investment strategy targets used in the investment competition under way for investment section members in 2017.

Description: This article provides some insights into the creativity employed in cash flow testing to help ensure the sound survival of small companies that have limited means.

Description: This paper presents a parsimonious 11-parameter model that explains the pattern of mortality for the female and male mortality rates of the 1975–80 Select and Ultimate Basic Tables. This parametric model is useful because it can predict the select mortality rates beyond the 15-year select period and because it can predict the select rates for issue ages greater than 70 years old. From the Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1994, Vol. 46.