Description: This paper offers a decision making procedure for solving complex problems step by step. It presents the decision analysis process for both public and private decision making, using different decision criteria, different types of information, and information of varying quality.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to help practitioners and regulators more accurately quantify the potential impact of market risk on insurance products with equity-linked guarantees. To this end, this paper examines time series model selection and assessment based on residuals, with a focus on regime switching models. Also it discusses the difficulties in defining residuals for such processes and propose several possible alternatives. We determine that a stochastic approach to defining the residuals is the only way to generate residuals that are normally distributed under the model hypothesis.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This paper highlights the impact that a change in conditional data would have on a variety of risk assessment models, with specific emphasis on investment forecasting.

Description: In this paper, we derive three important longevity Greeks on the basis of an extended version of the Lee-Carter model that incorporates stochastic volatility.

Description: This report contains estimates of incidence and continuance rates from the general population using data available from the National Long–Term Care Surveys. This report was done by a subcommittee of the Society's Long–Term Care Experience Committee and reflects work done primarily at the Duke University Center for Demographic Studies. This is a ZIP file containing main report, all appendices, tables, and figures from the study and model.