Description: This papers considers the effects of taxing nominal rather than real returns from short term deposits. A system for taxing real returns is developed. The possible results from a change in the method of taxation, to the one proposed in the paper are discussed. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 1.

Description: Design and future maintenance of an asset portfolio backing a new line of business is critical for proper asset and liability management for that business. Most portfolio optimization methods utilize linear or quadratic programming and require the user to specify the asset and liability attributes and cash flows into the program. The programmer must also supply an objective function to allow the program to find the optimal asset mix for the associated liabilities. Two problems with this approach are that the liability cash flows are fairly static and that one must frequently rebalance the portfolio. An alternative approach would be to develop a corporate model of both the assets and liabilities and incorporate various economic scenarios as input into the model. Asset strategies would be measured against a specific objective function that is calculated by the corporate model. Unfortunately, the majority of maximization algorithms available are very time consuming, and obtaining a reasonable portfolio mix becomes impractical. This paper overcomes this difficulty by using a very rapid optimization method from the chemical engineering profession called the Floppy Triangle. The paper includes an example of the use of this process to determine an optimal portfolio. It also discusses modifications of the algorithm that is required when the shorting of assets is not permitted.

Description: The purpose of the present paper is to discuss some of the methods by which fertility variations can be incorporated into population forecasts. From ARCH 1984, Vol. 1.

Description: Six methods are presented for calculating the probability of ultimate ruin where the waiting times between claims are independent and identically distributed. Three of the six use Monte Carlo techniques. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 1

Description: This paper presents the application of the asset share technique of pricing to Home Equity Line of Credit insurance. The paper's objective is to provide useful tools when developing a new HELOC product including projections for marketing and underwriting, distinctions between desirable and undesirable product design features, and development of premium rate structures. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, VOL. 2

Description: This paper reviews and compares the Canadian and U.S. Social Security systems as to their adequacy, actuarial equity and progressiveness. It concludes that the Canadian system[s] provide larger minimum benefits and, thus, greater adequacy than the U. S. On the other hand, the analysis indicates more emphasis on actuarial equity in the U.S. system [in total] than in Canada. Finally, both systems are shown to be highly progressive in that lower-wage earners get larger benefits per dollar of contribution than do higher wage earners. The paper concludes by noting that while the systems in these two countries have remarkably different actuarial formulae for determining benefits, and remarkably different structures, that the benefits that result from the two systems are surprisingly similar. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1999, Vol. 1.

Description: The main aim of this paper is to apply some of the techniques of modern time series and econometric analysis to analyse investment data in order to better understand the nature of long run relationships in investment series typically used in stochastic investment models. The paper attempts to identify and address fundamental issues that need to be considered before developing a particular stochastic investment model.

Description: An updated and expanded translation of the 1863 Theory of Life Insurance Premium Reserves by Dr. August Zillmer, Stettin, Prussia. This is a seminal paper for the life insurance reserve method used extensively in Europe.

Description: This paper presents Bayesian models for analysis of claim lag data. The analysis of claim runoff patterns investigate the extraction of information on trend and seasonal patterns in incurred claims. This is investigated on the basis of individual group data, and also relative to a larger aggregation of pooled experience. The models are implemented based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The models are applied to examples using simulated claim lag data. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2003, Vol. 1.