Description: Presentation from the 41st Actuarial Research Conference held on August 10-12, 2006 in Montreal, Canada. Fuzzy set theory is incorporated into times series analysis, giving fuzzy parameter estimates of models such as ARMA and GARCH. Examples are given, including returns on a stock and option valuation.

Description: This is the abstract of a paper that complements the existing research on optimal reinsurance by proposing another model for the determination of the optimal reinsurance design.

Description: In many countries, insurers and banks are separately regulated. In some countries, banks and insurers are not allowed to be part of the same conglomerate and share capital. This raises questions about the efficient use of capital and return on equity to shareholders. This is the abstract of an empirical study that views economic capital from a solvency perspective with the focus on downside risk. The key question addressed is 'What efficiencies, if any, are gained by allowing banks and insurers of different types to merge and thus share capital.' We examine to what degree bank and insurer performances have been correlated historically, especially in the downside tail. This case study is based on Canadian banks, life insurers and property-casualty insurers.

Description: When fitting a model to any data, there is some uncertainty about which model is best. Green [1995] quantifies this uncertainty through the Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo [RJMCMC] method. When using the RJMCMC method in a regime-switching situation, the chain determines the optimal number of regimes by jumping between various possibilities. This method gives each model its posterior probability of being the best. After an overview of the methodology, the authors apply it to various datasets and discuss the applications in modern actuarial science.

Description: This abstract is for a paper that addresses the problem of optimal reinsurance design using the criterion of minimizing the Conditional Tail Expectation (CTE) risk measure of the insurer's total risk.

Description: This is the abstract for the research paper on a hierarchial model for micro-level stochastic loss.

Description: This is the abstract for the presentation on a multi-name structural credit risk model with a reduced-form default trigger.

Description: This is the abstract for the paper on optimal risk retention under reciprocal reinsurance with exponential utility functions.

Description: This is the abstract for the paper on the application of Esscher transform to the Regime Switching Model.

Description: Recently there have been several studies on the dividend payments prior to ruin in various risk models. By employing some new obtained results in the actuarial literature, this presentation analyzes the distribution of the total dividend payments in a risk model with multi-threshold dividend strategy, where the claim arrivals are modeled by a Markovian arrival process [MAP]. A piecewise integro-differential equation in matrix form is derived and solved analytically for the moments of present value of the total dividends prior to ruin. The presentation also discusses the differences between its method and other existing ones. An example with exponentially distributed claim amounts is illustrated numerically.