Description: The purpose of this paper is to help practitioners and regulators more accurately quantify the potential impact of market risk on insurance products with equity-linked guarantees. To this end, this paper examines time series model selection and assessment based on residuals, with a focus on regime switching models. Also it discusses the difficulties in defining residuals for such processes and propose several possible alternatives. We determine that a stochastic approach to defining the residuals is the only way to generate residuals that are normally distributed under the model hypothesis.

Description: As the use of predictive models and novel datasets becomes more prevalent, a focus on consumer protection is being highlighted by regulators, ethicists, and industry insiders. Over time, increased rigor should and will be applied in model development and implementation. These issues are not new. Hundreds of individuals have worked on these issues in the laboratory, the board room, and the court room. The Civil Rights Act of 1964, Uniform Guidelines of the US EEOC, the Principles for the Validation and Use of Personnel Selection and other sources are intended to protect the rights of citizens and consumers and provide guidance to professionals in the development and use of decision-making tools. Drawing heavily on examples and parallels from psychology and employment practices as well as other disciplines, concepts such as model bias, fairness, adverse impact, disparate treatment and the like will be presented. Suggestions to ensure model validity, demonstrate model and data relevancy and minimize the potential for adverse impact to protected classes will also be offered. Each of these considerations will be linked to recent dialogue and concerns in the Life Insurance sector.

Description: A research report that examines modeling of cash flow associated within a pool of mortgages and specifically focusing on the effectiveness of infusing a limited amount of capital into the pool.

Description: Presentation from SOA Annual Meeting.

Description: This paper presents a policy-year model for GAAP valuation of reinsurance accepted on the coinsurance and modified coinsurance bases. Also presented are the interrelationships between the model's methodology and statutory accounting procedures, a discussion of experience-refunding situations, and a demonstration of the model's ability to yield GAAP profits as a level percentage of premium. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1981, Vol. 33.

Description: The primary objective of the paper was to develop a straightforward method for constructing an interpolation formula of finite range with desired properties stipulated in advance. This paper had in view mainly the application to polynomial interpolation as used in actuarial work. Followed by 2 discussion papers submitted

Description: This paper is from Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1955 Volume 7, Number 17. The author notes that recent advances in calculating equipment make possible producing graduations much more elaborate than any done previously. The paper confines itself to the problem of graduating a single column of rates, such as an ultimate column, using a Whittaker-Henderson B graduation of the fourth order. The author provides a detailed description of the process with significant mathematical theory.

Description: This paper shows how the results of copula based capital aggregation models can always be locally approximated by relatively simple formulas. The paper defines the concepts of diversification factor and tail correlation matrix and describes methods for estimating these quantities from simulated data. We show how these ideas can be put into practice as both computational shortcuts and presentation tools.

Description: In the copula literature there are many bivariate distribution families but very few higher dimensional ones. Moreover, most of these are difficult to work with. Some of the bivariate families can be extended to more dimensions but in general the construction of distribution functions with more than two variables is a difficult problem. This paper introduces a construction method that is straightforward to implement and can produce multivariate distribution functions of any dimension.

Description: This article walks through the history of model efficiency in the U.S. life insurance industry, examines its current application, and looks ahead to what we might expect to see in the future.