Description: This is a sequel to Panjer's paper. The Walter Reeed Staging Method - WRSM - is a method that groups patients infected with HIV into various stages. This paper looks at mathematically modeling the transition process of HIV by using the WRSM. This paper argues that Panjer's results are biased and understates the average time it will take an HIV life to develop AIDS.

Description: Discusses mortality improvements over the last 20 years, the extent to which premiums on nonparticipating policies reflect the changes in mortality experience, the proposed new valuation table, should valuation tables be split by gender, and extra mortality on substandard lives at very long durations.

Description: Summary of the SOA's Annuity Valuation with Dependent Mortality research report which examines the standard industry practice of assuming independent lives for insurance products that cover multiple lives.

Description: Review of a new text on mortality measurement, 'Mortality Table Construction' by Robert W. Batten.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium January 2002. This paper evaluates age and sex specific patterns of change in underlying and multiple cause of death reports for the period 1980-1998 for 14 leading causes of death at ages 65 and older. Changes in four types of mortality measures will be analyzed: 1 underlying cause death rates 2 multiple cause death rates 3 associated cause death rates and 4 death rates based on the joint occurrences of multiple cause conditions. Implications of the results are discussed in the context of existing models for analyzing and forecasting future mortality patterns in the U.S.

Description: This zip file contains the following files in support of the 1996 Group Long-Term Disability Experience Study: 1. CGDT.TXT, 2. RUNTAB95.TXT, 3. TABLE95.EXE, and 4. TABLE95.TXT.

Description: Life and annuity markets around the world have seen increasingly complex investment-combined products, including universal life, fixed indexed annuities, variable annuities with a wide variety of guaranteed benefits and indexed variable annuities. Insurance companies are facing unprecedented exposure to financial risks in addition to traditional mortality and longevity risks. The risk assessment and modeling for such complex designs by conventional methods often focus heavily on their market competitiveness and profitability. However, there seems to be a lack of quantifiable and systematic approaches to assess investment risks associated with investment combined products. The objective of the proposed work is to develop a framework for quantifying and analyzing various forms of contractual designs and showcase different techniques to assess the trade-off between competitive contractual designs and their practical implications regarding the difficulty of risk management.

Description: Accelerated underwriting expert, Ryan Holt, FSA, gives a brief history of the confusion matrix and how its use came into the accelerated underwriting space. An in depth discussion of estimating mortality impact using underwriting audits follows. Three key assumptions that effect mortality impact are discussed. Readers will leave with an understanding of how to estimate mortality impacts using audit results from any new under writing program as well as the considerations that should be taken around key assumptions. Background articles are provided for readers that are less familiar with the subject matter.

Description: This zip file contains the following Excel workbooks in support of the 1996 Group Long-Term Disability Experience Study: 1. SOATAB~1.XLS, 2. SOATAB~2.XLS, and TABLE95A.XLS.

Description: The paper provides information on the background, construction, and analysis of a new credit disability table, and then offers suggestions for the development of a valuation table.