Description: The Joint Risk Management Section is trying to develop better estimates of policyholder behavior in the tail [PBITT]. The mission of the PBITT working group is to examine and ultimately give guidance to actuaries on how to set policyholder assumptions in extreme scenarios. As part of its work, the PBITT working group issued its sixth survey to gather the range of assumptions actuaries use in pricing, reserving, and risk management of minimum guarantees on Variable Annuity products, such as death benefits, income benefits, withdrawal benefits and maturity benefits. This document contains the results of that survey.

Description: View the Spring 2021 ERM – Enterprise Risk Management ILA Exam

Description: This discussion at an SOA 1968 Regional Meeting looks at research on agency operations and actuarial involvement.

Description: Read the December 2018 issue of Predictive Analytics and Futurism published by the Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section.

Description: In this session the panel members speculate about the future of permanent life insurance. The discussion looks at term versus permanent and the considerations due to inflation, regulations, taxes, etc.

Description: A central problem for regulators and risk managers concerns the risk assessment of an aggregate portfolio defined as the sum of d individual dependent risks Xi. This problem is mainly a numerical issue once the joint distribution of (X1,X2, . . . ,Xd) is fully specified. Unfortunately, while the marginal distributions of the risks Xi are often known, their interaction (dependence) is usually either unknown or only partially known, implying that any computed risk measure of the portfolio is subject to model uncertainty. Previous academic research has focused on the maximum and minimum possible values of a given risk measure of the portfolio, in the case in which only the marginal distributions are known. This approach leads to wide bounds, as all information on the dependence is ignored. In this paper, we integrate in a natural way available information on the multivariate dependence and provide easy-to-compute bounds for the risk measure at hand. We observe that incorporating the information of a well-fitted multivariate model may, or may not, lead to much tighter bounds, a feature that also depends on the risk measure used. We illustrate this point by showing that the Value-at-Risk at a very high confidence level (as used in Basel II) is typically prone to very high model risk, even if one knows the multivariate distribution almost completely. Our results make it possible to determine which risk measures can benefit from adding dependence information (i.e., leading to narrower bounds when used to assess portfolio risk), and, hence, to identify those models for which it would be meaningful to develop accurate multivariate models.

Description: This is a presidential address to the Society of Actuaries by Harold R. Lawson. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1967, Vol. 19, Pt. 1, No. 55.

Description: This paper discusses mathematical modeling and pricing of 'Stable Value' financial products offered to pension plan providers. These products target a risk-averse population of investors who have a significant preference for a stability of returns. The paper offers a quantitative methodology that reflects a decision making process applicable in the situation of incomplete markets where traditional arbitrage free arguments are invalid.

Description: Obituaries of members of the Society of Actuaries whose dates of death were in 1969. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1969, Vol. 21, Pt. 1, No. 61.