Description: This is a discussion of the paper, 'A Convenient Method of Providing for Mortality Improvement Based on the a-1949 Table' by James E. Hoskins. Discusses seriousness of errors that can develop under certain circumstances, provides a formula for adjusting by modes of payment, discusses circumstances in which differences between Hoskins' method and Projection B is greater than in the example used in the paper, etc.

Description: This is the table of contents.

Description: This paper addresses the autoregressive model and shows that the boundedness restriction can be removed from the basic result on the probability of ruin. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 1.

Description: The Soviet Union recently released complete life tables for 1984-85. This paper compares the data in these life tables with those in the 1958-59 U.S.S.R. life tables and with those in U.S.A. life tables for comparable periods. Discussion is included.

Description: Some recent studies have shown a 'crossover' of mortality rates, with female rates exceeding male rates beyond some age around 100. The purpose of this paper is to develop some statistical tests for the significance of observed crossovers. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1986, Vol. 38.

Description: The objectives of this paper are: 1. To show why scientific laws of mortality are preferable to the continued use of graduation techniques on mortality tables. 2. To develop a new theory leading to a new mathematical law of mortality that reduces to Gompertz's law as a first approximation. 3. To demonstrate an understanding of select mortality and produce a simple formula that is reasonably consistent with it. 4. To develop methods to test this and other similar formulas on various bodies of data to establish their validity and usefulness. 5. To discuss the meaning of the results and provide some examples of the use of the formula for purposes other than graduation. 6. To discuss extensions of the models. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1980, Vol. 32.

Description: In this paper two theorems concerning the optimality of the perfect-fit and perfect-smoothness graduations are proved. Two examples are presented and some difficulties with regard to computational feasibility are reviewed. A discussion of the paper follows. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1978, Vol. 30.

Description: The author prepared the static Ga-1951 Male Mortality Table using Projection Scale C to 1970 and has graduated the results with a Gompertz formula.

Description: This report looks at identifying drivers of systemic risk to China’s insurance industry and develops a measurement method for systemic risk as well as systemic risk dependence between the insurance industry and other industries.

Description: The estimation of adequate reserves for outstanding claims is one of the main activities of actuaries in property/casualty insurance. The need to estimate future claims has led to the development of many loss reserving techniques. This paper is about the situation that occurs in claims reserving when there are negative values in the development triangle of incremental claim amounts. Typically, these negative values will be the result of salvage recoveries, payments from third parties, total or partial cancellation of outstanding claims due to initial overestimation of the loss or to possible favorable jury decision in favor of the insurer, rejection by the insurer, or just plain errors. Some of the traditional methods of claims reserving, such as the chain-ladder technique, may produce estimates of the reserves even when there are negative values. However, many methods can break down in the presence of enough [in number and/or size] negative incremental claims if certain constraints are not met. Historically the chain-ladder method has been used as a gold standard [benchmark], due to its generalized use and ease of application. A method that improves on the gold standard is one that can handle situations where there are many negative incremental claims and/or some of these are large. This paper presents a Bayesian model to consider negative incremental values, based on a three parameter log-normal distribution. The model presented here allows the actuary to provide point estimates and measures of dispersion, as well as the complete distribution for outstanding claims from which the reserves can be derived. The model applies Markov Chain Monte Carlo [MCMC] using the package WinBUGS.