Description: Usual treatments of multiple-decrement theory are on a nonselect basis, with all rates of decrement depending only on attained age. This paper develops the theory on a select basis, carried out fully in the stochastic framework. The relationship between select periods in a multiple-decrement model and those of the associated single-decrement models is investigated. A discussion of the paper follows. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1991, Vol. 43.

Description: Design and future maintenance of an asset portfolio backing a new line of business is critical for proper asset and liability management for that business. Most portfolio optimization methods utilize linear or quadratic programming and require the user to specify the asset and liability attributes and cash flows into the program. The programmer must also supply an objective function to allow the program to find the optimal asset mix for the associated liabilities. Two problems with this approach are that the liability cash flows are fairly static and that one must frequently rebalance the portfolio. An alternative approach would be to develop a corporate model of both the assets and liabilities and incorporate various economic scenarios as input into the model. Asset strategies would be measured against a specific objective function that is calculated by the corporate model. Unfortunately, the majority of maximization algorithms available are very time consuming, and obtaining a reasonable portfolio mix becomes impractical. This paper overcomes this difficulty by using a very rapid optimization method from the chemical engineering profession called the Floppy Triangle. The paper includes an example of the use of this process to determine an optimal portfolio. It also discusses modifications of the algorithm that is required when the shorting of assets is not permitted.

Description: The purpose of the present paper is to discuss some of the methods by which fertility variations can be incorporated into population forecasts. From ARCH 1984, Vol. 1.

Description: This paper presents discrete interpolation formulas, specifically a new method of deriving some existing formulas. The paper uses graduation theory in the interpolation method. Also include is a discussion of the paper. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1949, Vol. 1, No. 1.

Description: Review the findings of an expert panel discussing current Generative AI issues impacting the insurance industry.

Description: 1983 Report presenting an analysis of morbidity experience under individual medical expense policies in force during the 1981 and 1982 calendar years. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1983 Reports

Description: This paper examines tandem levels of salary and interest rates and finds that the absolute level of each assumption as well as the differential are significant cost determinants for defined benefit pension plans. In forming best-estimate salary and interest rate assumptions, the actuary must reconcile the difference, if any, between the currently observed rates and the valuation assumptions. Common practice is to choose expected long-term rather than observed rates for valuation purposes. The error in this procedure is analyzed and found to be tolerable for strictly temporary discrepancies between observed rates and valuation assumptions. For situations where these discrepancies are expected to persist for some time, a need is shown for nonuniform, calendar-year assumptions or their equivalent in order to develop best-estimate assumptions. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: This report introduces the concepts of BaR, creating measures for members to understand the benefit risk in these pools. The authors focus on the measures of budgeting and decision making.

Description: This people provides a derivation of continuous and curtate inequalities of life contingent functions and shows how the proofs of the continuous inequalities are of an entirely different nature from the usual proofs for the curtate inequalities Followed by discussion papers submitted by several authors

Description: This paper employs the theory of real option pricing to address problems in the area of operational risk management. Particularly, it develops a two-stage model to help firms determine the optimal triggers in the event of an influenza pandemic. The first stage proposes a regime-dependent epidemic model to simulate the spread of the virus, depending on whether the firm is active or inactive. The second stage views the reactivation decision as a call option and the suspension decision as a put option, and uses dynamic programming method to determine the optimal switching thresholds.