Description: An overview of forecasting methods potentially applicable to the work of actuaries, including preferred applications, current usage among actuaries and within the general business community, along with references for further study.

Description: An overview of forecasting methods potentially applicable to the work of actuaries, including preferred applications, current usage among actuaries and within the general business community, along with references for further study.

Description: An introduction to the field of Complexity Science. The report includes an overview of the field’s key results, detailed instructions for building Complexity Science models, examples of working models, review of practical models applicable to the work of actuaries, a literature review, and a discussion on how actuaries can apply Complexity Science in their work.

Description: This document presents the detailed results of a literature search performed during December 2009 - February 2010 to find resources for the report Complexity Science – An Introduction and Invitation for Actuaries.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.

Description: This paper explores how health care complexity challenges us to expand our repertoire of actuarial methods—and even recast our trend driver paradigm—in order to do our jobs better and maintain our credibility.

Description: This session from the 1984 SOA New York City Meeting covers selecting a pension fund investment manager, when it may be appropriate to use a consultant in the process, what to look for in a consultant and the process of selecting the investment manager. Record of the Society of Actuaries Vol. 10, No. 3

Description: This article provides a brief introduction to forecasting methods that are potentially relevant to actuarial work.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: These files shows the Schelling Segregation model. It accompanies the report Complexity Science - an introduction and invitation for actuaries, and supports the material in Chapter six: Cellular automata.