Description: Economic Scenario Generator - Investment Section Web Series - Risk Neutral

Description: The management of The Guardian Life Insurance Company of America Guardian decided during 2006 to perform an economic capital EC analysis, with results to be delivered in the spring of 2007. A second generation EC analysis EC 2.0 was conducted from fall 2007 through spring 2008. This article describes EC 2.0.

Description: Economic risk analysis has two dimensions: time and frequency. Asset return varies by time because of economic cycles and economic structural changes. Risk is higher during economic recessions and smaller during economic expansions. In addition, different economic structures may exist at different time scales. Risk measures calculated based on daily, weekly, monthly and yearly historical data can be very different. The appropriate frequency depends on the time horizon of the analysis. Therefore, it is important to measure economic risk at both the time level and the frequency level. However, time series analysis and statistical analysis that have been widely adopted in economic risk analysis focus on only one of the two dimensions. In this paper, wavelet models are used to enhance both time‐invariant analysis and time‐variant analysis. Wavelet models can systematically analyze risk by time and frequency and provide richer information than time series models. Using wavelet models, risk measurement can easily be adjusted based on time horizon in a consistent way. Equity VaR estimation is selected to demonstrate the application of wavelet analysis in risk management.

Description: This is the disclaimer for the Economic Scenario Generators tool available from the SOA / AAA on the SOA Website.

Description: 2021 ImpACT Conference - Session 10E: Azure Synapse for Actuaries | Solvency II Use Case 10.28.21 Recording

Description: This report discusses management decision making practices and the need for actuaries to build the appropriate level of variability for management actions in stochastic models to achieve a more realistic range of future experience among the stochastic scenarios.

Description: 2011 SOA Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This is an abstract of the referenced article.

Description: The thrust of this article is that while ERM starts out as a compliance and corporate governance tool, well managed companies use ERM as a strategic tool that will help them increase shareholder value. To do so requires a synthesis of the actuarial techniques of insurance and the capital markets perspectives of corporate finance.

Description: 2021 Life Meeting - Session 6D: The Importance of Joint Credit-Market Risk Modeling 8.31.21 Recording

Description: This paper builds a model that quantifies the natural hedging benefits of a portfolio of both variable annuities and equity indexed annuities. The model is based on risk-neutral option pricing theory and risk-adjusted performance measure, RAPM. Through a double-tier simulation framework, an optimum product mixture of those two contracts is achieved that provides the best RAPM and therefore deploys capital the most efficiently. From 2006 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS06-1.