Description: This paper develops the binomial version of the Lee-Carter model and provides a comparative study of simulation strategies for assessing risk in mortality rate predictions and associated estimates of life expectancy and annuity values in both period and cohort frameworks.

Description: The article explores the possibility of using the emerging technology for life insurers to build a monitor system for better risk and profitability management.

Description: a review of a paper by R. H. Daw, F.I.A. entitled “Smallpox and the Double Decrement Table: a piece of actuarial prehistory.”

Description: Presented at May 2002 Spring Meeting. Discusses the proposed new valuation table and how it affects future product development and design.

Description: A summary of the progress and recommendations of the Mortality Study Working Group and a request support in implementing the recommendations.

Description: Effective risk management of a portfolio demands accurate and succinct models which explain the main risk factors. We look at the various requirements we demand of a model, and find that they can all be met with an import from medical statistics: survival models.

Description: This is the digest from the informal discussion reviewing the 1951 Impairment study. It is the latest in a series of studies covering mortality of impaired risks. It covers the experience under Ordinary insurance issued from 1935 to 1949 traced to the anniversaries in 1950. Standard and substandard policies were studied separately.

Description: The influenza pandemic of 1918-20 is recognized as having generally taken place in three waves, starting in the northern spring and summer of 1918. This pattern of three waves, however, was not universal: in some locations influenza seems to have persisted into or returned in 1920. The recorded statistics of influenza morbidity and mortality are likely to be a significant understatement. Limitations of these data can include nonregistration, missing records, misdiagnosis, and nonmedical certification, and may also vary greatly between locations. Further research has seen the consistent upward revision of the estimated global mortality of the pandemic, which a 1920s calculation put in the vicinity of 21.5 million. A 1991 paper revised the mortality as being in the range 24.7-39.3 million. This paper suggests that it was of the order of 50 million. However, it must be acknowledged that even this vast figure may be substantially lower than the real toll, perhaps as much as 100 percent understated.

Description: The impact of the underlying mortality table selected as a basis for projecting mortality results

Description: This paper introduces the predictive modeling tools to mortality research. The predictive modeling is applied to study how multiple risk drivers such as demographic characteristics and social and economic status impact the mortality improvement of the advanced age population. The paper provides both the theoretical frameworks and the application aspects of the predictive modeling process. As the result, a mortality risk score was derived in differentiating the mortality risk for the advanced age population.