Description: Part one of a two-part article, to be contined in Feb 2014. Provides useful rules of thumb for breaking out investment return into components of periodic arithmetic return, geometric return, the volatility of returns and the correlation of returns by asset class. Develops and relates these axiomatic concepts into rules of thumb for estimating quantiles of a range of stochastic returns.

Description: This is a study on the Nesbitt formula and the variants to this formula.

Description: The purpose of this report is to develop information that may be useful to the Pennsylvania legislature in its efforts to regulate the funding of pre-need contracts. What we have done is to develop a theoretical basis for regulation and then to suggest some practical approaches to initial implementation.

Description: From the Editor: This issue of Long-Term Care News attempts to address how LTC insurers manage investment risk and morbidity misestimation risks.

Description: Risk management and capital budgeting are two critical components of the corporate decision process. They often need to be considered jointly at the corporate level because of their natural interaction through the dependent risk exposures and other synergetic relationships within an intricate corporate structure in a dynamic business environment. . This paper develops an integrated framework that aligns these two important corporate strategies across business divisions to optimize the streamlined enterprise strategic goal in a multi-period setting. The proposed integrated framework can serve as a practical guideline for corporate executives to optimally coordinate capital budgeting and risk management at the enterprise level.

Description: Analysis of consequences of investment risk taking by public pension plans.

Description: The impact of Fed’s QE program on the financial markets has been enormous and profound. The tapering and the eventual removal of the stimulus will be equally enormous and profound, and may be disruptive. To adapt to the potential regime change in near future, some investment strategies have been proposed: (1) shorten duration to focus on the short end of the yield curve and create laddered portfolios; (2) reduce allocation to high yield bonds; (3) rotate out interest rate sensitive sectors such as utilities; and (4) use interest rate derivatives to hedge the interest rate uncertainties lying ahead. On the other hand, contrarians who see the QE program continuing may stay the course and consider (1) adding duration, (2) gaining exposure to high yield bonds, and (3) increasing allocation to utilities and telecoms.

Description: Many top-performing businesses aren’t just risk aware, but rather risk intelligent. Such a posture helps prepare companies for a major event and can demonstrate to a regulator or auditor that an appropriately strong control framework is in place. Better still, companies gain real strategic value from a “risk adjusted” understanding not only of their threats and vulnerabilities, but also the upside opportunities associated with various risks. It starts with having both qualitative and quantitative information to identify, assess and manage risks. Strategic risk management, at its core, is about creating value by increasing transparency and accountability, and quality of information. More than a mere compliance exercise, effective risk management enables more informed strategic decision making, increased accountability and transparency, a greater likelihood of organizational success, and – ultimately – competitive advantage, as borne out by many studies that correlate risk management and financial results.

Description: From a session at the 2001 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, November 29-30, 2001 Panel discussion overview of current risk-based capital RBC requirements of life insurers, as well as insight into topical issues and potential changes to RBC. Items covered include: • Recap of RBC law and RBC calculation rules • Tax impact on the factors • Common stock issue • C-3 testing • Proposed C-3 testing for Variable Annuity Guaranteed Living Benefits VAGLB • Liquidity risk issue

Description: Thailand has been experiencing a high and rapid HIV infection growth rate due to a combination of exotic new strains of the HIV, heavy intravenous drug use, a flourishing commercial sex industry and entrenched high-risk behavior by Thai males. Although major uncertainties remain about the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Thailand, one thing is certain: HIV infection will continue to spread. Therefore Thai life insurance companies have to make plans for coping with the consequences of this epidemic.