Description: The method described in this paper is to allocate surplus to each category of business and reserves in proportion to its estimated effect on an insurer's surplus variation. Risk load for each category of business is then selected so that the return on allocated surplus for each category is equal to the overall return on surplus. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: This article is the first installment of a three-part series that aims to provide an overview of ESGs and will focus on the general motivation for stochastic modeling, its advantages and its limitations. Future articles will further break down the key factors of ESGs and the application of these factors to better understand the Academy Interest Rate Generator (AIRG).

Description: This article is the final installment of our three-part series on economic scenario generators (“ESGs”). Part I and II were published in the November 2019 and August 2020 issues of The Modeling Platform. Part III contextualizes the framework for selecting, building, and validating ESGs and focuses on the Academy Interest Rate Generator (“AIRG”), the most commonly used real-world ESG for US actuaries

Description: The U.S. health care industry has gone through a dramatic change during the past several years. The business model has moved from a risk selection model to a risk management model. People can shop online for their health care coverage. Everyone is welcome! Annual and lifetime dollar limits, underwriting and the pre-existing conditions exclusion are all in the history book now. Facing the challenges of the post-reform era, many health insurance carriers began using big data analytics on all aspects of their decision-making processes. The goal is to be able to compete on analytics in this quickly changing environment. However, becoming an analytics competitor is not easy. It requires the belief from the leadership and a group of dedicated analytical professionals to solve emergent business problems that existing strategies cannot address in an evolving market. These problems include marketing for acquisition and retention, coding accuracy, revenue growth, health care disparity, payment integrity, quality of care, health care cost reduction and, ultimately, personalized care management. In this section, audience will learn a basic understanding of the role of predictive analytics in US Healthcare marketplace.

Description: This model arose from a project to evaluate the cost of a health care access' program to provide comprehensive medical care to uninsureds in Minnesota, for the Minnesota Health Care Access Commission. The project was to provide estimates of the impact on per-person and aggregate costs for various participation percentages in the access program. In order to evaluate those costs, the antiselection model described in this was developed. Of note, this was the ACTUARIAL EDUCATION AND RESEARCH FUND 1991 PRACTITIONERS AWARD WINNER. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 2.

Description: Edited Content: Discover more about key Economic Scenario Generation (ESG) topics that are relevant for actuarial applications. Expect a focus on risk-neutral / market-consistent ESGs, like setting long term assumptions and scenario reduction. Long tern assumptions will focus on a basic introduction to challenges in deriving long term assumptions and key concepts to better understand how those are set. Come explore a basic overview of scenario reduction techniques and challenges as well as common sense criteria to address the reasonableness of the reduction. Provided Content: The overall objective would be to introduce key ESG (Economic Scenario Generation) topics to actuaries, with two topics below that are relevant for actuarial applications. We intend to focus on risk-neutral / market-consistent ESGs. 1. Setting long term assumptions o A basic introduction to challenges in deriving long term assumptions and key concepts to better understand how those are set 2. Scenario reduction o A basic overview of scenario reduction techniques and challenges as well as common sense criteria to address the reasonableness of the reduction

Description: This paper provides a method for estimating long-tailed unpaid losses from paid loss development using trended generalized bondy development. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: An overview of guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits (GLWB) on registered index-linkedannuity (RILA) products and a stochastic analysis of market risks.

Description: In the United States, there has been much industry discussion of the challenges associated with a sustained low interest rate environment, which impacts both the asset and liability sides of the balance sheet in unfavorable ways. The intent of this article is not to focus on these strategic issues. Rather, we attempt to shine a spotlight on some of the modeling challenges that practicing actuaries may experience when incorporating negative interest rates into their models.

Description: Actuarial transformation is a growing trend with clear impacts on data, software, analytics and reporting. So how does modeling fit in? The presenters will explore how the actuarial modeling function fits into a transformed business, starting with the questions below in a case study discussion to allow attendees to learn from peers.