Description: This paper uses a Bayesian approach to persistency to explore retirement cost projection variability. The analysis is divided into two parts. In the first part a subjective population projection model is developed, based on a beta-binomial distribution for the number of participants persisting through a given age. Probability statements regarding such items as the number of participants at a given age and the distribution of retirees are developed. The second part shows how the model might be used to generate confidence intervals for retirement cost projections. Both the single-entry-age case and the multiple-entry-age case are considered. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1979, Vol. 31.

Description: The objective of this paper, prepared by the Society of Actuaries Committee on Pension Principles and Related Research, is to examine the advantages and disadvantages of using select and ultimate interest and salary scale assumptions in the valuation of defined benefit pension plans. The technical issues involved and the effect of such assumptions on the incidence of plan cost are also studied. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1985, Vol. 37.

Description: This discussion at a 1967 Regional Meeting is about methods of allocating investment income using the investment year method, the treatment of unrealized capital gains, considerations in choosing interest assumptions, and challenges presented when comparing investment yields among companies.

Description: These discussions at the 1967 New York and New Orleans Regional Meetings are about considerations in choosing interest assumptions and challenges presented when comparing investment yields among companies.

Description: This general session discussion looks at: A. Methods available to decide the percentage of the premium that should be used for life insurance, weekly indemnity benefits, hospitalization and surgical benefits. B. Formulas devised for computing contingency reserves for possible losses on mortgage loans and real estate. C. Extent to which companies are using participating forms for the following coverages: 1. Annuities in the benefit stages and/or supplementary contracts involving life contingencies after expiry of the term certain period 2. Family income and other decreasing term rider benefits 3. Extended term insurance D. Methods developed for pricing annuities and settlement options derived from an annuity table without provision for mortality improvement

Description: This paper deals with the selection of appropriate interest and inflation assumptions, which is one of the most important considerations in the valuation of a defined benefit pension plan. The paper begins by describing a simplified model in which the only important consideration is the selection of an appropriate differential between interest and inflation assumptions. The discussion then considers some situations that might lead the actuary to attempt to select a realistic level of interest and inflation assumptions, in addition to an appropriate differential. The author's conclusion is that in some situations the absolute level of the interest and inflation assumptions can be all but meaningless, and the differential between the two assumptions is the important factor. In other situations the use of this technique will produce serious inaccuracies in the valuation results. As always, the actuary must analyze each situation in order to determine which of the available techniques will produce the best results with the least effort, given the degree of accuracy required. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1976, Vol. 28.

Description: The following topics were discussed at concurrent sessions: 1. Personal Security in the 1970's- United States and Canada, 2. Adjusted earnings for life companies, 3. Pension funding, 4. What about these younger actuaries?, 5. Sources of statistical information for actuaries, 6. Variable life insurance, 7. Models and decision techniques, and 8. Role of the actuary in expense control. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1970, Vol 22, Pt. 2, No. 63.

Description: This paper examines tandem levels of salary and interest rates and finds that the absolute level of each assumption as well as the differential are significant cost determinants for defined benefit pension plans. In forming best-estimate salary and interest rate assumptions, the actuary must reconcile the difference, if any, between the currently observed rates and the valuation assumptions. Common practice is to choose expected long-term rather than observed rates for valuation purposes. The error in this procedure is analyzed and found to be tolerable for strictly temporary discrepancies between observed rates and valuation assumptions. For situations where these discrepancies are expected to persist for some time, a need is shown for nonuniform, calendar-year assumptions or their equivalent in order to develop best-estimate assumptions. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: This paper examines the valuation of assets and poses the following questions: A. What bases, other than cost or market, are in use for valuing pension trust assets and acceptable under the Internal Revenue Code and Rulings? and B. How can a retirement plan having assets valued on a book or cost basis utilize existing unrealized appreciation for purposes of improving benefits or reducing current funding costs without changing to a market value basis? From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1961, Vol. 13, Pt. 2.

Description: This paper presents a theoretical treatment of the determination of the cost of vesting by a method not hitherto demonstrated to the Society. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1966, Vol. 18, Pt. 1, No. 52.