Description: An overview of forecasting methods potentially applicable to the work of actuaries, including preferred applications, current usage among actuaries and within the general business community, along with references for further study.

Description: This study note introduces the methodology and tools of applied futurism. Actuaries must explore new methodologies and tools for dealing with open unstable systems. The discipline of futurism has developed and tested a methodology and tools to apply to these systems. This note intends to provide sufficient knowledge, skills, and attitudes about applied futurism, so the tools and perspectives can be used daily by an actuary. In the note, we will orient you to the general field of futurism by reviewing its history and comparing it to similar disciplines such as strategic planning, economic planning, and actuarial science. We will also bring you up-to-date on the current state of knowledge about how change happens in our world of complicated open systems, and why we need the tools of applied futurism. Finally, we will describe the methodology and tools of applied futurism. If you wish to learn more about applied futurism,provides a basic bibliography of important works in this area.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. An update on Futurism Section activities followed by an introduction to common techniques of futurism. Examples are given how actuaries can use these techniques in their day-to-day work.

Description: Panelists discuss several factors impacting the pricing and design of health products. Topics include the recession, managed care, defined-contribution plans, employer perspective and provider pricing power. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 29, No. 2, Session 81

Description: This is an article that discusses Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work and its significance for actuaries.

Description: This paper explores how health care complexity challenges us to expand our repertoire of actuarial methods—and even recast our trend driver paradigm—in order to do our jobs better and maintain our credibility.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: These files shows the Schelling Segregation model. It accompanies the report Complexity Science - an introduction and invitation for actuaries, and supports the material in Chapter six: Cellular automata.

Description: A summary of a new feature in the newsletter: a forecasting application contest. The Forecasting and Futurism Section will award a 16GB iPad to the section member who develops the best actuarial application of a judgmental forecasting method, incorporating best practices outlined in this issue’s article titled “Best Practices in Judgmental Forecasting.” In addition, we will feature the winning application in an issue of the newsletter.

Description: This workbook shows the Sugarscape model. It accompanies the report Complexity Science - an introduction and invitation for actuaries, and supports the material in Chapter six: Cellular automata.