Description: This paper demonstrates that extreme value theory (EVT) can be used as a tool to model policyholder behavior in the extreme tail. This paper applies EVT to the study of variable annuity dynamic lapse behavior in the extreme tail. It illustrates a process whereby a company can fully model policyholder behavior, including the extreme tail, with existing data. No judgment about the extremal behavior is necessary.

Description: The Actuary Vol. 22 , No. 7. This articles explores the dangers posed by many guaranteed-return life insurance and annuity products.

Description: How can actuaries innovate solutions to the challenges posed by policyholder behavior risks?

Description: The insurance industry has a lot to learn from academia's missteps. With predictive analytics assuming an ever-expanding role in risk modeling, carriers would be well-served to establish practices that mitigate the creation of faulty models. Hear practical advice on how to mitigate the risks of overfitting, with a focus on how to translate complex policyholder behavior experience data for long-term products into behavioral models using company- and industry-level data.

Description: Examination of full surrender and benefit utilization industry experience for Variable Annuities with and without Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefits. Part 1 of 3 articles focuses on full surrenders and building a dynamic surrender function using predictive modeling tools.

Description: Retirement income security under defined contribution plans depends upon sufficient savings and decumulating that savings so it provides an adequate income throughout retirement. Investment risk and longevity risk inherently complicate the latter task. The economic rationale for annuitization is clear in this context. However, annuitization rates have historically been very low, a phenomenon that is still not well understood. If retirees are making “rational” decisions based on full information, if their choices are consistent with the pursuit of their financial priorities, then low annuitization rates are not an issue for concern. In this case, retirees who annuitize and retirees who do not must have different financial priorities. However, research by the TIAA Institute shows that the decision to not annuitize is inconsistent with the stated financial priorities of most non-annuitants. It appears that non-annuitants do not und erstand that annuitization would address their financial priorities for retirement.

Description: The article summarizes several recent private letter rulings from the IRS addressing the "investor control" doctrine in the context of funds of funds.

Description: Help to generate ideas for formulating a pricing strategy of 2015 individual health insurance products despite having very limited claims and premium experience in early 2014.

Description: This document shows you how to set up modeling platforms and start to work with them. Used in conjunction with Complexity Science - An Introduction and Invitiation for Actuaries.